Economic Research and Prospects in Vietnam: Youth and Vitality after the War

Economic Research and Prospects in Vietnam: Youth and Vitality after the War
Youth and vitality after war-torn-Vietnamese economic research and prospects Source: Huatai Macro Li Chao After war-torn, as a young and vibrant socialist country, Vietnam ‘s economy has grown rapidly after reform and opening up, and a rich and outward-looking economyGrowth has made important contributions, the comparative advantages of factor endowments, population structure, and the rate of alternative urbanization indicate that Vietnam still has room for growth.  Core point of view After war, as a young and vibrant socialist country, Vietnam’s economy has grown rapidly after reform and opening up. Mutual and export-oriented economies have made important contributions to growth, the comparative advantages of factor endowment, population structure, and the gradual urbanization rate.Other national conditions show the remaining baseline growth space for Vietnam.The demographic dividend has a wide range of advantages.As an important industry support for Vietnam, the manufacturing industry is catalyzed by the favorable policies and systems, factors endowment advantages, and good terms of trade. It has a promising future and also has certain investment value.We are relatively optimistic about Vietnam ‘s growth prospects. Through the continuous introduction of favorable policies, the continued influx of foreign countries, the capital market has only room for growth, and the real estate supply and demand logic is clear. We believe that there are certain investment opportunities in the Vietnamese stock market and the property market, but beware of import declines and external risksShock.  Vietnam ‘s economic development potential has broken through, and manufacturing advantages are obvious. In 1986, Vietnam ‘s Communist Party ‘s Sixth National Congress gradually reformed and opened up to the present day. Vietnam ‘s GDP growth rate has remained at an internal level. Consumption accounts for a large proportion, but investment and import and export forces are used instead. Foreign exchange and export-oriented economies areVietnam is an important driving force for economic growth. Vietnam adheres to the strategy of opening up and reform to promote economic development.In terms of industrial structure, the secondary and tertiary industries account for a relatively high proportion. The manufacturing industry as a pillar industry has developed rapidly, and the automobile industry and the power industry have also grown rapidly.We believe that Vietnam ‘s manufacturing industry will still have better prospects in the future. Low factor costs are important comparative advantages. The park economy, tax and fee reductions, and incentive mechanisms are used to build growth platforms for Vietnamese manufacturing companies. Port advantages and currency stability are outward-oriented.The development of large-scale manufacturing industry provides support, and the development experience of the four small dragons in East Asia and China’s coastal areas can be applied to the growth of Vietnam’s manufacturing industry.  There is room for consumption growth; foreign countries vote with their feet and actively allocate Vietnam ‘s real estate consumption as the main component of Vietnam ‘s GDP. Residents ‘consumption accounts for more than 90% of consumption. The increase in openness has driven Vietnam ‘s tourism, hotels, and other areas to grow rapidly. Overseas touristsYoung and middle-aged tourists account for nearly 30%. In 2017, it exceeded 4 million people. In the future, the increase in Vietnamese income and the growth of overseas tourists will bring incremental space for consumption.After the subprime mortgage crisis, overall house prices in Vietnam have risen, the urbanization rate, the age structure of the population, and the size of the population are the medium- and long-term logics of the demand side of the housing market. The recent inflows into the Vietnamese housing market reflect the improvement of real estate investment attributes.I think there are investment opportunities in the Vietnamese housing market.  The capital market is in urgent need of development. Vietnam ‘s manufacturing, stock and housing markets have investment opportunities. But beware of risks. Vietnam ‘s capital market is centered on the banking system, the size of the credit market is expanded, and the bond market is dominated by government bonds. The stock market still has room for growth.The development of the direct financing system and the variety of optional investment targets are the future development directions of the Vietnamese capital market.Taking into account the main advantages, favorable policies, regional advantages, and other factors, Vietnam ‘s manufacturing industry has only certain investment opportunities; the short-term logic of foreign use of “foot” voting and urbanization, age structure, demographic trends and other factors show that the Vietnamese housing marketInvestment value. Although the stock market is weak in liquidity, considering the stable support of fundamentals, there are certain investment opportunities.We believe that the overall external economic risks of the Vietnamese economy will decrease in 2019, and fundamental performance will improve and pick up, but beware of exogenous shocks caused by importation that affect financial markets.  Risks suggest that if the Fed raises interest rates more frequently and at a faster pace than expected, it may trigger vertical turbulence in US stocks and impact the US real economy.  The escalation of trade frictions has impacted market risk appetite.Global aggregate demand fell unexpectedly.  Geopolitical risks, the situation in the Middle East has deteriorated, and conflicts have broken out in some regions.  First, the young socialist country after the war-torn Vietnam-The young socialist country that gave birth to the war-torn country looks back on Vietnam’s modern history.Looking back on more than 70 years of modern history in Vietnam from 1945 to the present, it is not difficult to find that after the war is the key word that cannot be avoided.After World War II, Vietnam successively surrounded three wars.The first stage was the French-Vietnamese war period: Vietnam was a French colony before World War II and was occupied by Japan during World War II. On August 15, 1945, after Japan announced its unconditional surrender, Ho Chi Minh launched the August Revolution that month to establish the Democratic Republic of Vietnam, and France invaded again in the same year.Vietnam fought against Vietnam for the sovereignty of Vietnam. Since then, the Democratic Republic of Vietnam and France have experienced the battle of France and Vietnam for 9 years.After the Battle of Dien Bien Phu in 1954, France signed an agreement on restoring peace in Indochina in the Constitution, and the South was still ruled by France (later South Vietnam).The second phase of the US-Vietnam war phase: In 1965, the United States under the pretext of the “Beibu Gulf Incident” broke out in Vietnam. South Vietnam supported by the United States, North Vietnam supported by the Soviet Union, and China started North Korea.In May 1975, the Vietnam War ended with the victory of the Southern Liberation Front of Vietnam and the Democratic Republic of Vietnam.The third stage is the stage of China’s counterattack against Vietnam.  Vietnam’s road to founding a country goes through twists and turns.On September 2, 1945, Vietnam declared independence and established the Democratic Republic of Vietnam. In that year, France invaded again. After signing a consensus agreement on restoring peace in Indochina in 1954, Vietnam was liberated in the north.An agreement to restore peace, the U.S. military began to withdraw from southern Vietnam, and southern Vietnam was completely liberated on April 30, 1975, and a unified Congress was formed in April 1976.After going through a tortuous road of founding the country, in July 1976, Vietnam was officially nationally unified and its country became the Socialist Republic of Vietnam.  Vietnam is multi-ethnic. A one-party socialist country is similar to China. Vietnam implements a socialist political system.Vietnam’s government system is a one-party system of people’s congresses, and its state system is the Marxist-Leninist Socialist Republic.Vietnam’s highest authority is the National Assembly, whose term of office is generally five years, and it usually has antique meetings twice a year.The Vietnamese government is the highest administrative organ of the country. The National Assembly conducts elections and elections to the Vietnamese government every five years, and generally includes the prime minister, deputy prime ministers, ministers and ministers.In terms of the judicial system, the Vietnamese judicial system consists of the Supreme People’s Court, the Supreme People’s Procuratorate and Local Courts, the Local Procuratorate and the Military Court.The Communist Party of Vietnam is the only legal political party in Vietnam. The Vietnamese trade union was established on February 3, 1930. In October of that year, it was renamed the Indian branch. In 1951, it was renamed the Vietnam Labour Party.Has nearly 3.6 million party members.The main departments in the Vietnamese government structure are the Ministry of National Defense, the Ministry of Public Security, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Planning and Investment, the Ministry of Construction, and the Ministry of Transport.The Ministry of National Defense is the office of the Central Military Party Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam and the highest military administrative organ of the Vietnamese Army. The Ministry of Public Security is an important department of the Vietnamese government and is responsible for maintaining the national political stability and social order and cracking down on various crimes.  Vietnam is a multi-ethnic country.As of 2017, the total population of Vietnam has reached 93.67 million, including 46.25 million males and 47.41 million females.As of 2018, there are 54 ethnic groups officially identified in Vietnam, of which the top five are: Jing / Vietnamese (subject) proportion.2%, the proportion of Yi people is 1.9%, the Dai nationality accounts for 1.7%, Mang ethnicity accounted for 1.5%, Khmer ethnicity accounts for 1.4%.  Vietnam is actively developing a comprehensive, short-term diplomatic line.As of 2017, Vietnam has established diplomatic relations with more than 180 countries including China, the United States, India, and Russia. It joined ASEAN in 1995, joined the WTO in 2007, and signed the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement in 2016.Vietnam has very close relations with China, the United States and ASEAN.On January 18, 1950, Vietnam established diplomatic relations with developing countries. Sino-Vietnamese relations have maintained a good relationship since entering a certain freezing point in the 1970s.The United States and Vietnam established diplomatic relations in July 1995. In July 2013, the United States and Vietnam decided to upgrade to a comprehensive partnership.Vietnam joined ASEAN in July 1995, and ASEAN gradually became Vietnam’s second largest trading partner after China.Buddhism dominates Vietnam.In terms of religion, as of 2017, the number of Buddhists in Vietnam was close to 10 million, replacing them; the number of Catholics was nearly 5.5 million; the number of Gaotai believers was more than 2.4 million; the number of holy believers was 1.3 million;  Vietnam is located south of China.Land area of Vietnam is 32.90,000 square kilometers, the overall shape is long and narrow S-shaped.Nearly 75% of the land area in Vietnam is mountains and plateaus. The terrain is high in the northwest and low in the southeast. The northwest and north are mainly high mountains and plateaus.Vietnam’s rivers are also relatively dense. The rivers at both ends are the Red River, Mekong River, Minjiang River (Heishui River), Minjiang River and Taiping River.Vietnam is an important neighbouring country for developing countries. It is located in the eastern part of the Indo-China Peninsula, south of it. It borders Guangxi and Yunnan, and the land boundary between China and Vietnam is 1347 kilometers long.At the same time, Vietnam borders Laos and Cambodia to the west, and borders the South China Sea to the east and southeast.  Vietnam can be divided into 8 regions by region, and its administrative divisions divide the country into 58 provinces and 5 autonomous regions.Vietnam can be divided into 8 regions.Vietnam divides the country into 58 provinces, of which there are 5 municipalities, Can Tho, Da Nang, Hai Phong, Hanoi, and Ho Chi Minh City. These 5 municipalities have relatively high levels of development.Hanoi is the capital of Vietnam, with a population of nearly 3 million, and is the political and cultural center of Vietnam.Ho Chi Minh City, formerly known as Chai Bang, Saigon, is Vietnam’s economic center, the country’s largest port and transportation hub, with an area of 2,095 square inches and a population of more than 6 million.Haiphong is the largest port city in northern Vietnam, a municipality directly under the Central Government, and an export port of Hanoi.Danang is located in central Vietnam and borders the South China Sea. It is an important industrial city and seaport in the country.Can Tho is the largest city in the Mekong Delta to the south of Houjiang Province. It is the agricultural distribution center and light industrial base in the southern Mekong Delta.  Opening up and innovation is a key factor for Vietnam ‘s rapid growth. Opening up promotes competition. Reforms are forcing the development of an outward-looking economy. Vietnam ‘s reform and opening up are the result of opening up to promote competition and reforms are forcing development.  Reform is an important institutional support for Vietnam’s economic growth.In December 1986, a few years after China proposed the “reform and opening up” policy, Vietnam’s “Huawei Division” proposed a “renovation” line at the 6th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam, which opened Vietnam’s market economy and opening up.Between 1991 and 1996, the Vietnamese government applied a series of market-oriented reforms to transfer land use rights to farmers in the agricultural sector; the industrial sector shifted from a mandatory production and marketing system to an autonomous, self-financing market system; the commercial sector eliminated the countryThe unified price is changed to the market price; in the financial field, various forms of banks, including state-owned, stocks and joint ventures, are allowed to coexist, and a diversified financial system based on the banking system is established.In 1996, the Eighth National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam proposed to continue deepening reforms on the established market line, and strive to achieve national industrialization and modernization in 2020.In the process of Vietnam’s reform, opening up to the outside world is an important policy, and opening up to foreign countries is an important institutional basis for promoting Vietnam’s economic growth.In July 2006, Vietnam issued a new Investment Law, announcing the unified management of domestic and foreign investment, removing restrictions on the Foreign Investment Law, and further opening up the market.The following year joined the WTO in 2007.In July 2015, in order to adapt to new international trade and investment rules such as TPP, Vietnam made oppositional amendments to the investment law, introduced a new Investment Law, and the 2015 edition of the new Investment Law defines foreign investors., Foreign enterprise establishment procedures, foreign purchases of domestic enterprise stocks and other issues will be explained, and foreign investors will be given preferential value in investment.The United Nations Trade Development Organization also rated Vietnam as the most attractive country in ASEAN.  The increase in the degree of opening to the outside world has driven the development of the Vietnamese market, while the non-state sector has released vitality to drive economic growth.Since the 21st century, Vietnam has actively integrated the international economic order. At the beginning of the 21st century, Vietnam established three major goals for diplomacy, actively integrated the international order, developed relations between major powers, and peripheral relations.Positive progress has been made in opening to the outside world. Vietnam joined the WTO in 2006, and proposed “Expanding External Relations and Actively Participating in the International Economy” at the 10th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam in 2006. It is also at the 10th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam.Recognize further development and clarify “developing various economic components and developing various types of production and operation organizations”.After the financial crisis in 2008, Vietnam has improved the development of a socialist market economic system. In 2011, the 11th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam clearly stated that “the improvement of a socialist market economy system is one of the three breakthrough points.”The increase in opening up has provided support for domestic reforms, the socialist market economy system has been gradually transformed, encouraging and vigorous development, and the vitality of non-state-owned economic sectors has also been continuously released. As of 2007, non-state-owned sectorsThe growth rate of GDP has begun to outpace the state-owned sector, and stronger market competition, encouraged by the system and policies, has released vitality and has become an important force driving Vietnam’s rapid economic growth.  Persist in development is the last word, and growth is important.In April 2016, Vietnam passed the “2016-2020 5-year Economic and Social Development Plan Resolution”, and the economic development goal was set to “the average GDP growth rate in the next 5 years will reach 6.From 5% to 7%, by 2020, the per capita GDP will reach USD 3,200-3500, and by 2020, the proportion of industrial and service industries will reach 85% of GDP, and the average working population will increase by 5%.It is not sharp. Due to its weak foundation, Vietnam’s economic foundation is still relatively backward. Adhering to development is the last word. It is of great significance for Vietnam to maintain its economic growth at a medium and high speed. This requires Vietnam to continue to deepen reform and further open up.Judging from the readjustment of the economies of emerging market countries, the vitality of Vietnam’s economy is still one of the better growth prospects among emerging market countries.Actively join international organizations, Vietnam accelerates opening up and integrates global cooperation Vietnam actively joins international organizations and integrates global economic and trade cooperation. The opening up of the economic and trade field has helped Vietnam’s rapid economic growth.  Joining ASEAN in 1995 became the initial step for Vietnam to participate in interregional economic cooperation.Before the Cold War, Vietnam and ASEAN belonged to two opposing camps. They were incompatible in terms of foreign policy and political goals. With the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, the international diplomatic environment has undergone complex changes, and Vietnam ‘s foreign policy has also changed.”It has gradually become Vietnam’s guideline for foreign exchanges.The signing of the 1991 Paris Agreement marked the removal of the last obstacle in relations between Vietnam and ASEAN.Soon, Vietnam formally submitted an application to the Secretary-General of ASEAN to join the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia and to join ASEAN.In July 1992, Vietnamese Foreign Minister Nguyen Meng Chin was invited to attend the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, which Manila called, and signed the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia.In July 1994, Vietnamese Foreign Minister Nguyen Thanh Qin was invited to participate in the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting and the “ASEAN Regional Forum” after the meeting, saying that Vietnam strongly requested to join ASEAN and hoped to achieve this goal in 1995.On July 28, 1995, the 28th ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting was held in Brunei. Vietnam wished to formally join ASEAN and became the seventh replacement of ASEAN organizations.Joining ASEAN is an important turning point for the economic and regional cooperation of Vietnam’s emerging regions.  Joining APEC in 1998 became an important turning point for Vietnam’s integration into the international community.The 11th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam proposed that Vietnam’s strategic shift from integrating international economic integration to integrating the international community. The significance of APEC to Vietnam’s economic development has become increasingly prominent.In 1996, the Vietnamese government formally applied to join APEC.Vietnam officially became an APEC member in 1998 and participated in the APEC trade and investment liberalization and facilitation process, and proposed specific action plans and targets for completion in 2020.Joining APEC is a new substantive progress of Vietnam’s integration into the international community.  Joining the WTO in 2006, Vietnam’s participation in the reconstruction process has further deepened.After the Second World War, the new technological revolution pushed economic development into an irreversible objective trend. In January 1995, Vietnam applied to join the World Trade Organization.In April 2002, breakthroughs were achieved in the WTO accession negotiations. The WTO Vietnam Working Group and Vietnam entered into a substantive negotiation phase on issues such as opening the market. Until December 2003, the two sides conducted a total of 7 rounds of negotiations. At the same time, Vietnam alsoIt has conducted two rounds of multilateral negotiations with the United States, the European Union, China, Japan, India, Australia, Switzerland, Malaysia, Canada, South Korea, New Zealand and Uruguay, and with the European Union, the United States, 北京夜网 Canada, Australia, Japan, etc.Representatives of WTO representatives have made many transitions. It is generally believed that Vietnam ‘s economic policy and economic system reform have made significant progress. After 11 years of hard work, Vietnam has concluded negotiations on market access with some 28 members.And multilateral negotiations.On November 7, 2006, at the informal WTO meeting of all members, Vietnam was allowed to join the WTO and become the 150th full member of the WTO.Accession to the WTO has given Vietnam greater opportunities for development in trade, investment and technology.  In January 2019, the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (CPTPP) officially entered into force in Vietnam, and Vietnam’s foreign trade development has entered a new period of possibility.CPTPP is a revised version of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, or TPP. TPP was represented in 2016 by 12 representatives including Brunei, Chile, New Zealand, Singapore, Australia, Canada, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, the United States and Vietnam.A multilateral trade agreement signed in April, which was never fulfilled due to a US withdrawal.Eleven individuals other than the United States resumed the agreement in May 2017, and formally signed an amendment agreement, the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (CPTPP), in San Diego in March 2018.According to “Vietnam News” CPTPP officially entered into force in Vietnam on January 14, 2019, marking a new development trend of Vietnam’s foreign trade, prompting Vietnam to fully integrate external resources to promote internal economic system reform and business environment improvement.  External pressure, but domestic growth momentum is still strong. Vietnam’s economic growth is generally better in 2018. In the context of global economic growth and trade tensions, Vietnam’s economic growth is generally better in 2018, and GDP growth has hit since 2008.new highs.According to statistics from the Statistics Bureau of Vietnam, the current price of Vietnam’s GDP in 2018 was 5,535.3 trillion Vietnamese dong (approximately US $ 238.5 billion), GDP constant price exceeded growth by 7.08% is the highest increase since 2008, exceeding the 6 proposed by the Democratic Party.7% growth target.From the perspective of structure, in 2018, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery accounted for about 14 of GDP.57%, an annual increase of 3.76%, the highest growth rate since 2012, resetting its contribution to GDP8.7%; industry and construction account for 34.28%, an annual increase of 8.85%, contributing 48% to GDP.6%; service industry accounts for 41.17%, an annual increase of 7.03%, the contribution rate of the service industry to GDP reached 42.7%.From the perspective of GDP based on the expenditure method, Vietnam ‘s final consumer spending increased by 7 in 2018.17%, investment increased by 8 in ten years.22%, exports of goods and services grow by 14 per year.27%; imports of goods and services have grown for ten years.81%.GDP per capita is expected to reach 58.5 million VND, which is equivalent to 2587 US dollars, with an annual increase of 198 US dollars (the exchange rate is based on the end of 2018).  The increase in the total factor income contribution rate reflects the “quality” improvement in Vietnam’s economic growth.Absolutely, the quality of Vietnam’s economic growth has improved, the contribution of total factor transformation to economic growth has increased, labor productivity has improved, and capital productivity has increased.In 2018, the contribution rate of total factor income (TFP) to GDP growth reached 43.5%, an average of 43 during the 2016-2018 period.29%, higher than 33 during the period 2011-2015.With an average level of 58%, technological innovation’s stimulus to economic growth appears.At the same time, Vietnam’s overall economic labor productivity reached 1 per person in 2018.2 billion Vietnamese dong (equivalent to US $ 4,512 per person, an annual increase of US $ 346), and the growth rate of labor productivity in 2018 was 5.93%, mainly due to the increase in the labor force and labor employment.The incremental capital output rate (ICOR) was 6 in 2016.42% year-on-year, down from 6 in 2017.11%, in 2018 it will reach below 6% to 5.97%, the average ICOR for 2016-2018 was 6.17%, down from 6 in 2011-2015.25%, indicating a further improvement in capital gains efficiency.  Second, Vietnam ‘s population has a significant dividend. Demographics and quality dividends still support the 1980s. Political stability, economic recovery, and reform and opening up have driven Vietnam ‘s population and labor force to continue to rise.As of 2017, the total population of Vietnam has reached 93.67 million, of which 46.25 million are males and 47.41 million are females. The total population has been implanted from the 2% level in 1980 and has gradually slowed down to the 1% level in 2017 for nearly 40 years.In Vietnam, the total population has gradually increased by nearly 80%. At the end of 1981, there were only 53.7 million people. Now nearly 40 million people have been added.Among them, the proportion of the population aged 15-64 years has continued to increase from around 1970 to around 2011, and the proportion of the elderly and young children has continued to decline. The trend has gradually bottomed out since 2013.However, the main working population is 28 to 33 years old, showing a very strong work vitality.We believe that the rapid population growth originated from the baby boom after the 1980s. Vietnam ‘s political situation gradually stabilized around 1985, and economic activities gradually recovered. The baby boom led to a significant increase in population growth and led to the reform and opening up of Vietnam.The population was sustainable at 1 until 2000.5% or more.  At the same time, from the perspective of factors of production, Vietnam ‘s labor force continues to grow until 2017 has reached 57.49 million. Before 2015, Vietnam ‘s labor force growth rate significantly exceeded the total population growth rate, reaching stages in 1990 and 2012, respectively.The peak of sexual growth, the labor population increased by 5 that year.51% and 3.75%.The rapid rise of the labor force is mainly due to the gradual stabilization of Vietnam’s economic and political environment in the early 1980s, the restoration and restoration of industrial production, and further development. Reform and opening up have driven rapid economic growth in the country.Employment choices and improvements have also promoted the transformation of the agricultural population into the working population, and the working population has resumed growth.  Vietnam ‘s “demographic dividend” showed a differentiated performance, with the population dynamics increasing rapidly, and the population quality dividend and demographic dividend are still sustainable.Relatively speaking, the “demographic dividend” has a positive effect on economic growth. The “demographic dividend” generally discussed in developing countries or academia, that is, the effective working population continues to rise, the dependency ratio declines, and the burden of social pensions for young children decreasesHigher labor force promotes economic growth. We believe that this goal is mainly defined from a quantitative perspective. We further transform the “demographic dividend” and divide it into the number of population dividends, the demographic dividend and the population quality dividend.On this basis, the “demographic dividend” of Vietnam is analyzed.The demographic dividend is the growth effect brought about by the increase in the size of the labor force, the demographic dividend is the positive effect of the peasant citizenization in the context of urbanization of the city, the positive effect brought by the structural growth of manpower in the process of agricultural industrialization, and the demographic quality dividend is the skill improvementGrowth effect.The demographic dividend and demographic dividend are the driving effect variables of economic growth, but there are obvious thresholds. The former is the Lewis turning point, but the increase will be very slow after the urbanization rate reaches a certain height.The effect of the population quality dividend is small, but it will be continuously improved through innovations in technology and organizational models. It is relatively sustainable and can continue to drive economic growth.  After the 1980s, the stability of the economic and political environment led to the release of Vietnam’s demographic dividend, and the labor force only doubled; the increase in the baby boom and labor participation rate led to the effect of the demographic dividend, and the process of urbanization and industrialization accompanied by agricultureThe population is shifting to the industrial population, and the peasants are becoming citizens. Vietnam is actively promoting the promotion and improvement of national education and labor skills, and the dividend of population quality also has a positive impact.  At present, Vietnam ‘s population dividend is still supported but the inflection point is beginning to emerge. There is still room for demographic dividends and population quality dividends.In 2014, the dependency ratio of the Vietnamese population reached 49.At the bottom of 4%, it started to rise slowly, which means that the marginal utility of the population dividend will start to decrease but still support; at the same time, the termination of Vietnam’s urbanization rate in 2017 reached only 35%, with an average annual growth of 0.7% fluctuates, and at this rate of growth, it is estimated that the urbanization rate will reach 70%, and there is still room for growth for nearly 50 years. The demographic dividend will still support Vietnam’s economic growth during the transition period.In addition, after the reform and opening up in the 1980s, Vietnam ‘s national doors gradually opened up, and investment in science and technology, innovation, and skills upgrading increased rapidly. The presence and investment of high-tech foreign companies were transformed. The Vietnamese population quality bonus was gradually released and the level of educationWith the improvement of labor force skills to different degrees, the population quality dividend will still play an important role in Vietnam.  Third, Vietnam ‘s economic development potential has broken through, and manufacturing advantages are obvious. An export-oriented economy is an important driving force for Vietnam ‘s economic growth. Vietnam is a typical export-oriented economy.Since its official establishment in 1976, Vietnam’s economic development can be divided into two phases with 1986 as the dividing point. In 1986, the “Sixth Congress” of the Communist Party of Vietnam gradually reformed and opened up and began to implement the transition from a planned economy to a market economy. Since 1986, VietnamThe economy has entered a period of rapid growth. During the Asian financial crisis and the subprime mortgage crisis, some adjustments occurred due to the impact of external variables. The economy as a whole maintained a high growth rate.In the GDP structure, since 1995, the final consumption expenditure has accounted for more than 70% of GDP, and is generally in the 70% -85% range. The capital formation scale accounts for 25% -40% of GDP.Net exports have turned from negative to positive since 2012, accounting for less than 4%.From the perspective of contribution rate, the net export’s intervention in economic growth has led to relatively stable consumption and breakthroughs in investment volatility, which are related to policy stimulus.  Under the pressure of the global economy in 2018, Vietnam’s imports and exports still maintained a rapid growth rate.According to statistics from the Vietnam Statistics Bureau, Vietnam’s exports in the ten years of 2018 were 2,447.USD 200 million, an increase of 13 over 2017.8%; the average import value is 2375.100 million US dollars, an increase of 11 over the previous year.5%.In January and February 2019, Vietnam’s import and export of goods reached 366.800 million US dollars, an annual increase of 5.9%, of which domestic enterprises exported 107 goods.200 million US dollars, an increase of 9.9%; foreign companies (including crude oil) reached 259.$ 600 million (70% of total exports.8%), an increase of 4.3%.Vietnam’s national imports of goods totaled 367 in the first two months.$ 600 million, an annual increase of 7.5%, of which domestic enterprises imported 152.USD 900 million, an increase of 11%; foreign companies reached 214.$ 7, an increase of 5.1%.We believe that due to the obvious advantages of the development of Vietnam’s manufacturing industry, the rapid growth of imports and exports under the downward pressure of the global economy is an important driving force for Vietnam’s economic development.  From a structural point of view, an export-oriented economy and foreign countries are important driving forces for Vietnam’s economic development.The foreign sector ‘s driving role in the economy has shown a clear reorganization. There have been two repeated transitions in the past 30 years, respectively during the Asian financial crisis and the global financial crisis caused by the subprime crisis. From 2009 to the present, the foreign exchange sectorThe driving force of economic growth continues to grow.Vietnam is a more typical export-oriented economy. It is industrial and the manufacturing industry is not oriented. Therefore, these two sectors have also shown a certain change in the role of economic growth, and have a significant role in boosting the economy. However, in AsiaDuring the financial crisis and the subprime mortgage crisis, forced by the deterioration of the global demand environment, Vietnam’s own industry and manufacturing growth have also been affected accordingly.The impact of consumption on the economy is relatively limited, maintaining an overall growth rate of 5% to 10%.  In 2018, Vietnam’s total investment scale continued to grow, and sufficient funds contributed to economic development.Overall, the data on the scale of development investment funds of the whole society in 2018 performed better, and gradually in 2018, the total social investment at current prices was estimated to be 1,856.6 trillion Vietnamese dong (approximately US $ 81.3 billion), an annual increase of 11.2%, equivalent to 33% of GDP.5%, including: State sector investment 619.1 trillion Vietnamese dong (approximately US $ 27.1 billion), accounting for 33% of total capital.3%, an increase of 3 over the previous year.9%; non-state sector reached 803.3 trillion Vietnamese dong (approximately $ 35.2 billion), accounting for 43.3%, an increase of 18.5%; foreign direct investment sector reached 434.2 trillion Vietnamese dong (about 19 billion U.S. dollars), accounting for 23.4%, an annual increase of 9.6%.  Foreign direct investment in Vietnam has a pull-in effect on economic development.Foreign direct investment reached 434 in 2018.2 trillion Vietnamese dong (about 19 billion U.S. dollars), accounting for 23% of total social investment (at current prices).4%, an annual increase of 9.6%.Since this year, foreign direct investment projects have grown rapidly. From January 1, 2019 to February 20, 2019, according to data from the Vietnamese government website, a total of 514 new foreign direct investment projects have been approved in Vietnam, which have increased many times.1%, registered capital of 24.$ 44.9 billion, an increase of 75 per year.7%.Essentially, there are 176 capital increase projects, and its capital increase amounted to 8.$ 54.8 billion, an increase of 22 per year.1%.Overall, the total number of newly approved and increased capital in the first two months of 2019 reached 32.USD 99.7 billion, an annual increase of 57.8%; foreign direct investment funds amount to 25.$ 800 million, an annual increase of 9.8%.We believe that the rapid growth of foreign investment will promote the rapid development of Vietnam ‘s economy, transform Vietnam ‘s further opening up and improve its infrastructure, and Vietnam ‘s attractiveness to foreign investment may be further strengthened in the future.  Persist in development is the last word, and growth is important.In April 2016, Vietnam passed the “2016-2020 5-year Economic and Social Development Plan Resolution”, setting the economic development target as “the average GDP growth rate in the next 5 years will reach 6.From 5% to 7%, by 2020, the per capita GDP will reach 3,200 to 3,500 US dollars. In 2020, the proportion of industrial and service industries will reach 85% of GDP, and the social working population will grow by an average of 5% annually.It is not sharp. Due to its weak foundation, Vietnam ‘s economic foundation is still relatively backward. It is of the utmost importance to adhere to development. It is of great significance for Vietnam to maintain economic growth at a medium and high speed. This requires Vietnam to continue to deepen reform and further open up.At a time when the economies of emerging market countries are facing readjustment, the vitality of Vietnam’s economy is still one of the better growth prospects in emerging market countries.  Industrial structure: The secondary and tertiary industries account for a relatively high proportion. The manufacturing industry is the focus of development. The proportion of Vietnam’s primary industry has decreased year by year, and the secondary and tertiary industries have steadily developed over 70%.According to the economic sector classification of the Statistics Bureau of Vietnam, various types of economic activities in Vietnam can be roughly divided into 20 categories.Vietnam ‘s primary industry agriculture, fisheries and forestry accounted for a small decline in the national economy. By 2017, the primary industry accounted for 15 of GDP.3%.The secondary industry accounts for about 30% of the national economy. Processing manufacturing and mining are the main sectors of Vietnam’s secondary industry, accounting for 15% of GDP, respectively.33% and 7.47%, of which the processing and manufacturing industry develops rapidly, the output value and proportion continue to increase, and the growth of the mining industry shows a downward trend.In the tertiary industry, the highest proportions are wholesale and retail in order?Industry, car, motorcycle and other vehicle maintenance?, Finance, banking and insurance, real estate, housing and catering services, and education and training activities.Which, wholesale and retail?Industry and maintenance of cars, motorcycles and other vehicles?, Education and training activities show elongation, while the proportion of real estate industry has declined.Overall, Vietnam’s primary industry is relatively small, and there is still room for improvement in the secondary and tertiary industries.  Processing manufacturing, automobile industry, etc. are important industries in Vietnam. The characteristics and pillar industries of Vietnam include agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, industry and manufacturing, among which the automotive industry, power industry and oil and gas industry are prominent in the industrial sector.  Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery is one of the important industries in Vietnam.According to data from the Vietnam Statistics Bureau, the output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery in 2018 was 806.7 trillion Vietnamese dong (about 347.US $ 5.6 billion), an annual increase of 3.76%, the highest productivity since 2012.The agricultural sector is the main force for growth, with an output value of 575.9 trillion Vietnamese dong (about 248.1.2 billion US dollars), the growth rate reached 2.89%, also the highest growth rate in the period 2012-2018, contributed 0 to the development of overall economic value added.36 single; fishery sector output value 190.1 trillion Vietnamese dong (81.$ 9.2 billion), an annual increase of 6.46%, contributing 0 to GDP growth.The output value of 22 forestry sectors is 40.7 trillion Vietnamese dong (about 17.$ 5.3 billion), an annual increase of 6.01%, but because of its relatively small proportion, its contribution to GDP growth rate is only 0.05 averages.  The industry is generally good, and the automotive industry and the oil and gas industry are characteristic industries.Data from January and February 2019 show that Vietnam’s industrial production is still in a better state, and the industrial production index increased by 7 in January and February respectively.9% and 10.2%, of which, the growth rate of electricity, water and gas has clearly rebounded since the third quarter of 2018, while the mining industry has performed relatively poorly.  Vietnam is an important global cement producer.According to 2017 data, the total domestic cement production capacity in Vietnam is 1.13.8 billion tons per year, ranking fifth in the world, behind China, India, Iran and the United States.As of 2017, Vietnam has 65 active integrated cement plants and 14 grinding stations.In Vietnam, the top 10 cement manufacturers are local producers, and almost all cement companies are directly or indirectly owned or controlled by the government.At present, Vietnam has become one of the world’s largest exporters of cement, and its domestic cement output exceeds cement demand. According to data from the Vietnam Cement Association (VNCA), Vietnam ‘s cement capacity was over 2600 tons in 2017, and Vietnam has naturally become an ASEAN multinationalImportant cement exporter.  The automobile industry and the power industry are important industries in Vietnam.Vietnamese auto companies mainly assemble imported components and reduce the localization rate to less than 10%.As of 2017, Vietnam’s auto industry has 12 foreign companies and more than 100 domestic companies. These companies are located in the upper and lower reaches of the automotive industry chain, of which nearly 20 auto companies assemble complete vehicles and nearly 20 auto companies conduct auto bodyProduction, and the production of auto parts by more than 60 companies, some core parts still need to be imported.Vietnam ‘s power industry has grown rapidly. In 2016, Vietnam ‘s total production and purchase of electricity was 177 billion kWh, with a longer growth rate10.8%.As of 2016, Vietnam ‘s total power stations nationwide totaled 388 million megawatts, ranking second among ASEAN countries.In its seventh power development plan, Vietnam made it clear that in 2020, it will strive to reach the total national power demand of 340-370 billion kWh, transform it into thermal power, nuclear power and wind power as the focus of forward development, and begin to seek renewable energy power generation.  Manufacturing is a pillar industry in Vietnam. Mining, wholesale, retail and repair are also important industries.From the perspective of the proportion of GDP industry, Vietnam ‘s manufacturing industry accounted for 15% in 2017, and its growth rate was relatively fast. The growth rate was 10 from 2015 to 2017.6%, 11.8% and 19.5%, manufacturing has naturally become a pillar industry in Vietnam.In addition, the wholesale and retail industry, mining industry, finance and insurance industry are also important industries, with their share reaching 10%, 8%, 5 respectively.5%, the growth rate was 11%, -4% and 10%.Some of the smaller industries have higher growth rates, and their share will increase in the future, such as science, education, culture, health, information, construction, and so on.  The Spring Festival factor dragged down Vietnam’s industrial production index in February 2019, and the manufacturing industry performed well; the number of employees in foreign and non-state industrial enterprises increased.In February 2019, the Vietnam Industrial Production Index (IIP) decreased by 16 from the previous month.8%, mainly because February coincides with the Lunar New Year holiday; annual growth of 10%.3%, of which mining industry fell 5%, processing, manufacturing industry increased 12.8%, electricity production and distribution increased by 10.9%, water and waste, wastewater treatment and management services increased by 7.2%.From January to February 2019, IIP is estimated to grow by 9 per year.2%, but lower than the annual consolidation of 13.7%, of which processing, manufacturing increased 11.5%, contributing to national industrial growth.9 levels; electricity production and distribution increased by 9.5%, contribute 0.9 servings; water and waste, wastewater treatment and management services increased 7.9%, contribute 0.1 single; mining industry fell 4.7%, resulting in a national industrial level decline of 0.7 averages.As of February 1, 2019, the number of employees in Vietnamese industrial companies has increased by 2 each year.3%, of which the number of employees in state-owned enterprises fell by 0.3%; growth of non-state enterprises 2.3%; growth in foreign direct investment enterprises 2.7%.  Vietnam’s manufacturing industry has shown rapid upgrading.In recent years, Vietnam’s industrial structure has undergone rapid transformation, especially in the manufacturing sector. Electronic processing, textile and apparel industries have grown rapidly, mainly due to the factor costs, geographical advantages, and institutional incentives that Vietnam can use in the process of integrating into the global industrial chain.As a result, a series of labor-intensive manufacturing industries have been transferred to Vietnam. The import and export scale of electronic products, mechanical parts and other products has continued to increase, and some multinational companies have also invested in Vietnam to build factories.As of 2017, Samsung’s production investment in Vietnam has exceeded $ 7.5 billion, and LG and Microsoft have also invested $ 1.5 billion and 3 respectively.For US $ 200 million, Apple Corp. set up its Asian R & D center in Vietnam, and Chinese company Foxconn also set up a factory in Vietnam.  Layout for the future, the Vietnamese government actively promoted the implementation of multiple industrial plans.The Vietnamese government is actively planning for the future in terms of energy, power, and transportation. Various industrial planning policies have been implemented in order to promote the rapid development of Vietnam and achieve industrialization and national modernization goals by 2020.Some kind of implementation of the “Seventh National Electric Power Development Plan of Vietnam 2011-2030” in the energy field, and “building infrastructure supporting systems in the transportation field, so that Vietnam will basically become a modern industrial country by 2020”,The road construction plan for 2020 “; the coal sector and the textile industry have” the coal development plan to 2020, looking forward to 2030 “and” the development plan for the textile industry, looking to 2030 “.  Vietnam ‘s manufacturing industry has obvious advantages in Nigeria ‘s Vietnam ‘s industrial structure. We believe that Vietnam ‘s manufacturing industry has significant advantages. The main advantages are low factor costs and high industrial returns, significant benefits in attracting investment, and relatively stable exchange rates as outward-oriented.The development of manufacturing industry creates a stable environment and so on.We believe that from a current perspective, Vietnam has certain similarities with the rapid development of the four Asian dragons in the late 20th century and the coastal areas after the reform and opening up, and has become the basis for the rapid development.  Factor cost advantage is an important comparative advantage of Vietnam’s manufacturing industry. Low factor cost and high industrial investment return are important comparative advantages of Vietnam’s manufacturing industry.As a part, Vietnam’s economic development is still at the expected level, but at the same time it has certain factor cost advantages.As of 2017, the per capita GDP was only 2,234 US dollars. At least the per capita GDP reflects the cost of Vietnam’s replacement. The ratio with the Southeast Asian countries such as the Philippines, Malaysia, and Thailand is also at a level. At the same time, considering that the total growth rate is faster, the scale effect is alsoWill play an active role.Low factor cost has become an important advantage for Vietnam to undertake industrial transfer. Especially labor-intensive industries can increase profit margins by reducing costs, transforming them into a method of “transferring” and “going out” of products. Vietnam ‘s manufacturing industry has better development.prospect.  Favorable policies and financial incentives for the development of the manufacturing industry will help Vietnam implement the tax reduction plan to focus on enhancing the competitiveness of small and medium-sized enterprises and help the development of the real economy.In order to eliminate obstacles to corporate development and achieve the goal of 1 million high-efficiency companies across the country by 2020, the Ministry of Finance of Vietnam submitted a tax reduction plan budget to Congress in October 2016, proposing to reduce the corporate income tax rate for small and medium-sized enterprises and start-ups, 2017The 20% before the applicable tax rate growth rate will be reduced to 17% by 2020.According to the estimates of the Vietnamese government, this tax reduction policy will help reduce the burden on enterprises and encourage the increase in the number of enterprises. After that, under the preferential conditions, enterprises with an annual turnover of not more than VND 100 billion can enjoy tax exemptions. It is estimated that the national fiscal revenue will beDecrease by 1 each year.5 trillion Vietnamese dong.At the same time, the approval of the tax reduction policy will promote the growth of registered enterprises.  Vietnam’s economic park system is an important growth pole. The park is an important starting point for providing policy benefits and preferential benefits for industrial development.Since 1986, the resolutions of previous party congresses in Vietnam have formed a consistent proposal for the development of the economic park system. Special economic zones and industrial parks are regarded as important breakthrough points for economic growth.In the course of development, the Vietnamese government has also continuously promoted the management and operation mechanism of the economic zone mechanism. It has gone through four stages before and after.In early 2016, the Vietnamese government approved plans to establish three special economic zones (SEZs), and disclosed that it would pilot key economic and administrative policies in the special economic zones.Vietnam actively builds growth platforms, enjoys multiple benefits such as economic parks and industrial parks. Enterprises in the park enjoy reductions and exemptions in terms of import and export increments, corporate income, and other benefits, as well as preferential treatments in terms of land rent and credit rationing.Development prospects of manufacturing enterprises.  Reform of the foreign preferential system has promoted the vitality of Vietnam’s export-oriented economy.In Vietnam’s reform and opening up, opening up to foreign countries is an important institutional basis for promoting Vietnam’s economic growth.In July 2006, Vietnam issued a new Investment Law, announcing the unified management of domestic and foreign investment, removing restrictions on the reorganization of the Foreign Investment Law, including requiring priority purchases, services using domestic goods, or having to purchase a domesticThe products and services of some manufacturers have further opened up the domestic market.The following year joined the WTO in 2007.In July 2015, in order to adapt to new international trade and investment rules such as TPP, Vietnam made oppositional amendments to the investment law, introduced a new Investment Law, and the 2015 edition of the new Investment Law defines foreign investors., Further explanation of issues such as the procedures for the establishment of foreign enterprises, while vigorously simplifying the administrative review process, and giving preferential margins to the value of foreign investment.The United Nations Trade Development Organization also rated Vietnam as the most attractive country in ASEAN.  Industry encouragement policies and regional encouragement policies constitute the main body of Vietnam’s foreign preferential policy framework.From the perspective of industry encouragement policies, Vietnam encourages appointments and offers in certain industries, including scientific and technological development research; emerging applications; composite materials, new building materials, production of rare materials; renewable energy, clean energy, waste power generation; biologicalScientific development; corporate income in environmental protection and other fields, education and training, industry, medical, cultural, sports and environmental fields; advanced steel production; production of energy-saving products; production of machinery and equipment serving agriculture, forestry and fishery; production of irrigation equipment; poultry, livestock, waterProduct feed refinement.In addition, Vietnam also encourages foreign investors to invest and build factories in emerging development zones.  From the perspective of regional encouragement policies, the administrative region of the Vietnamese government to encourage investment is divided into two categories: particularly hard economic and social conditions (area A) and hard areas (area B), and enjoy special incentives and incentives, respectively.Specific preferential policies include: 1.Corporate income tax concessions: Area A enjoys 4 years of tax exemption (calculated from the generation of net profit, no later than 3 years), 5% will be levied 9 years after the exemption period, 10% immediately after 6 years, and then levied as ordinary itemsZone B enjoys a 2-year tax exemption (calculated from the time when the net profit is generated, but no more than 3 years at the latest). The tax exemption period is levied 7.5%, followed by 15% for 8 years, and then taxed as ordinary items.2.Import and export tariff preferences: Area A is exempt from import duties on fixed assets and exempt from the first 5 years from the date of commissioning of raw materials, materials or semi-finished products; export products are exempt from export duties or refunds.3.Reduction and exemption of land lease fee: The lease of land in Area A can be reduced or exempted for a maximum of 15 years, and the area of Area B can be exempted for a maximum of 11 years.  Vietnam’s port advantage is the basis of manufacturing development.Logistics transportation is an important guarantee for the development of manufacturing industry. Vietnam, which is relatively dependent on foreign trade, has a better port advantage. Port trade helps provide support for the development of manufacturing industry.One side of Vietnam’s territory is all bordered by the ocean, with a coastline of 3,200 kilometers and a relative length of the port, which results in a very favorable marine port trade.There are 43 major ports in the country, including seven in the north, 17 in the middle, and 19 in the south.Among them, Vietnam’s two main ports are: Hai Phong Port and Ho Chi Minh Port.Haiphong Port is located in northern Vietnam. It is an important gateway and transit station in Hanoi. It is the largest seaport in northern Vietnam. Haiphong Port is the maritime portal of the capital Hanoi (HANOI). The main industries are machinery, shipbuilding, textiles, cement, glass, chemicals, and enamel.And cans, etc .; the main export goods are iron, coal, rice, corn, cement, ferrous and non-ferrous metal ores, and the import goods are mainly machinery and textiles.Ho Chi Minh Port (HOCHIMINH) is located in the northeast of the Mekong Delta in southern Vietnam, downstream of the Saigon River, a tributary of the Dong Nai River, and is the largest seaport in southern Vietnam. Ho Chi Minh Port has three terminals: New Port, Thai Lai Port and Vietnam International Container Terminal.  Currency stability creates a good environment for the development of manufacturing industry. Similar to the above, Vietnam’s current exchange rate system is a managed floating exchange rate system, and currency stability is the basis for the development of export-oriented manufacturing.Similar to Vietnam, Vietnam currently adopts a managed floating exchange rate system. After Vietnam’s reform and opening up in 1986, due to the difficulty of fixed exchange rates to meet the objective needs of economic development, Vietnam reformed the financial system in 1989 to adjust the fixed exchange rate system to floating.Note that the exchange rate system is a managed floating exchange rate system.Currency stability is important to higher currency stability, maintaining the stability of the internal financial market and the economy, reducing the impact of exchange rates on the stability of foreign exchange cities, and creating a relatively stable market for domestic and foreign companies to trade with each other, especially Vietnam.For export-oriented and labor-intensive enterprises, the sensitivity of profit and cost to exchange rate changes can be overcome.Vietnam has stabilized the value of its currency as a monetary policy goal, maintaining the slow depreciation trend of the Vietnamese Dong against the US dollar, creating a good environment for the development of domestic manufacturing, and helping its manufacturing industry to continue to improve the domestic price advantage of low factor costsindustry.  The development experience of the four Asian dragons and the coastal areas of China helps the Vietnamese manufacturing industry grow rapidly. The economic development of the four Asian dragons and the internal coastal areas can form valuable development experience.”East Asian Four Little Dragons” refers to the export-oriented strategy of Hong Kong, China, Taiwan, Singapore, and South Korea in Asia since the 1960s, focusing on the development of labor-intensive processing industries, and achieving economic take-off in a short period of time.The experience of the rapid growth of the four small dragons in East Asia is mainly reflected in the following aspects: vigorously develop labor-intensive industries through cost and cost advantages, provide favorable conditions for the country’s oriented economy through opening up to the outside world, and use advanced technologies to absorb and upgrade domestic industriesThe foundation, the domestic economic system and policy environment “protect the good development of the industry” and so on.We believe that similar development experience is also reflected in the rapid development of domestic coastal areas after reform and opening up, opening up to the outside world, encouraging the development of an outward-looking economy, technology introduction and products going abroad, etc. have driven the rapid development of coastal areas’ economies, industries, and cities.Particularly prominent cases include manufacturing integration in the Pearl River Delta, outward-oriented economic belt in the Yangtze River Delta, and so on.  The four Asian dragons in the east and the development experience of the previous coastal areas perfect the rapid growth of Vietnam’s manufacturing industry.We believe that Vietnam currently has certain similarities with the four dragons of East Asia and other coastal areas before the economic take-off. It crosses the existing development experience of foreign countries, promotes opening up and reform of the economic system, and establishes a good policy environment to release market vitality and enhance corporate enthusiasm.First-rate foundation.  Fourth, the savings rate expenditure, consumption has a resistance to space consumption is the main component of Vietnam’s GDP, household consumption and final consumption expenditure are linked.Since 1995, the final consumption expenditure has accounted for more than 70% of GDP, which is the main component of GDP, and the final consumption expenditure, household consumption accounts for nearly 90%.In absolute terms, the GDP growth rate of Vietnam ‘s final consumption expenditure is relatively stable, staying at around 10%, slightly higher than GDP growth rate, and has a higher contribution rate to growth.  Traditional sales accounted for a relatively high proportion, and tourism, hotels, and catering increased rapidly.In terms of structure, commercial consumption accounts for a relatively high proportion of Vietnam ‘s retail consumption, but the growth rate of subdivisions has trended significantly. In contrast, although tourism, hotel and catering industry ‘s retail consumption has increased,The retail sales of hotels and catering industry have been growing rapidly with a significant increase in their share; this is due to long-term foreign tourists and the continued high-speed inflow of overseas capital.According to statistics from the Statistics Bureau of Vietnam, the number of local tourists in Vietnam in 2010 was 5 million people per year, which rapidly increased to 15.5 million in 2018 over 8 years, which translates into tourists from Asia and more than 30% of tourists from China.Decades of growth in visitors in 201819.9%, of which tourists from Asia reached 1207.550,000 people, an annual increase of 23.7%; tourists from Europe totaled 203.790,000 person-times, an annual increase of 8.1%.The three countries with the largest number of tourists to Vietnam in 2018 were China, South Korea and Japan, with 496 visitors from China.650,000 person-times, an increase of 23 per year.9%; Korean tourists 348.540,000 person-times, an increase of 44 per year.3%; Japanese travelers 82.670,000 person-times, an increase of 3 per year.6%.  Consumer demand for the Spring Festival holiday drove retail and service growth in February 2019, and international tourist reception hit a record high in a single month.In February 2019, the total revenue of goods retail and consumer services was estimated to be 390.8 trillion Vietnamese dong (about 168.US $ 400 million), down 3% from the previous month and up 11% year-on-year.5%.By industry, from January to February 2019, the total retail revenue of goods is estimated to reach 613.4 trillion Vietnamese dong, accounting for 77 of the country.3%, an annual increase of 14.4%, the income of the accommodation and catering industry is estimated to reach 90.2 trillion Vietnamese dong (about 38.USD 900 million), accounting for 11.4%, an annual increase of 5.7%, tourism revenue is estimated to reach 8 trillion Vietnamese dong (about 3).USD 400 million), accounting for 1% of GDP, exceeding growth by 7.8%, revenue from other services is estimated at 82.2 trillion Vietnamese dong (about 35.400 million US dollars), accounting for 10 of the total.3%, an increase of 4 per year.9%.The earliest is that in February 2019, the number of international tourists received in Vietnam reached a single-month high of about 158.820,000 person-times, an increase of 5 from the previous month.8%.  The sales data of Vietnam overlaps with the per capita income level, and the improvement of consumption capacity is the key to promoting Vietnam’s consumption growth.We believe that the main factors affecting consumption are consumption power and willingness to consume. Per capita income level is an important indicator of consumption power. It can be found by comparing Vietnam’s per capita GDP growth and retail growth with a certain correlation.In our opinion, as Vietnam ‘s economic base still needs to be improved and the level of GDP per capita has decreased, Vietnam ‘s GDP per capita in 2017 was only 2342.At $ 24, given the expected level of income, the key factor affecting consumption is consumption power, not consumption intention.Therefore, from 1994 to 2017, the growth rate of Vietnam’s per capita GDP and retail data showed a high correlation, reflecting that the increase in disposable income has strengthened consumption capacity and slender consumption has driven household consumption.We believe that as Vietnam’s per capita GDP is still at a relatively high level, the growth rate of household income will still have an effect on the growth trend of future consumption.  Vietnam’s savings rate is not high, and the Gini coefficient shows that the gap between the rich and the poor has narrowed.The change in the national saving rate of Vietnam can be divided into two phases. From 1990 to 2000, the saving rate of Vietnam continued to rise, from less than 5% to about 30%. Since 2001, the savings rate has basically remained stable at around 30%.As of the end of 2017, Vietnam’s savings rate reached 24.49%, overall, Vietnam ‘s savings rate level overlaps with China ‘s ratio, and the savings rate level is relatively low.The Gini coefficient can be seen in the imbalance of wealth in Vietnam. Although it has changed slightly since the 21st century, it still remains at about 43%. According to the Gini coefficient, it can be seen in the gap between the rich and the poor in Vietnam. It is not difficult to understand that as a socialist country,During the transition from the planned economic system to the socialist market economy, as the pace of reform and opening up was gradual, the gap between the rich and the poor rose slightly. At the same time, the level was also an unavoidable “by-product” in the process of economic transformation.  Fifth, real estate has developed rapidly, and housing prices have risen correspondingly in 2000. Until now, Vietnam ‘s real estate has experienced three periods of long-term perspectives. Due to the relatively high level of urbanization and the labor force, the ageing is limited. The overall trend of Vietnam ‘s real estate is upwardHowever, due to changes in the short-to-medium-term logic, the housing market has shown excessive stages and depression. From 2004 to the present, the housing market has gone through three stages.  The first stage is before the financial crisis, from 2004 to 2008, benefiting from the expansion and consolidation of economic growth to maintain a high growth rate, the average five-year GDP growth rate from 2004 to 2008 exceeded 7%, and increasing inflows, currency and CPISignificantly increased, the economy showed high growth, and showed strong support for the real estate demand side. At the same time, Vietnam successfully entered the market in 2007. The value of residential property preservation and outstanding economic prospects for residents is very high, so the actual sales volume is larger, exceeding10,000 units, the average apartment price exceeded 1,000 US dollars / square meter, up to about 1650 US dollars / square meter, at the time exchange rate, about 28.01 million VND / square meter.  The second stage is from 2009 to 2013. Due to the destructive power of the financial crisis, taking into account the characteristics of an outward-oriented economy and over-reliance, it had a series of interactions with the Vietnamese economy. Demand was weak and flooded. The housing market showedIn a relatively depressed situation, housing prices in Vietnam dropped sharply in 2009, and the Vietnamese government raised the proceeds of second-hand transactions, which gradually caused the market to cool down. Subsequently, the release of global growth liquidity and the Vietnamese government’s hedging stimulus policies have improved the housing market.Sales volume increased significantly in 2010, but housing prices grew relatively slowly between 2009 and 2013.  The third stage is from 2014 to the present. During this period, Vietnam ‘s economy has gradually resumed a steady growth path, and Vietnam ‘s monetary and fiscal policies have also entered a relatively stable state.Foreign countries have also continued to enter Vietnam. At the same time, the Vietnamese government has also introduced stimulus policies to promote housing purchases for the poor and civil servants. In 2014, a 30 trillion VND home loan program was launched. The 2015 Housing Law was amended to relax the conditions for foreigners to buy a house.The measure of buying a house with a legal visa has effectively boosted real estate sales. Japanese, South Korean and Chinese investors have increased significantly, and sales have eased to more than 30,000 units in 2015.As of 2018, in terms of the Vietnamese dong caliber, house prices have reached new highs. However, due to the continued depreciation of the Vietnamese dong against the US dollar, in terms of US dollars, Vietnamese house prices have not yet reached their 2008 highs.  A variety of reasons have led to the rapid development of the Vietnamese housing market and the rapid growth of real estate in Vietnam.We believe that the rapid development of real estate in Vietnam can be seen from two aspects: supply side and demand side, structural consumption demand brought about by the continuous advancement of urbanization, and objective return on investment and return on rent so that Vietnamese real estate can meet the allocation needs of investors.With the increase of the degree of opening to the outside world, favorable foreign policies have also supplemented the investment needs of foreign investors, etc. On the supply side, the circulation of land use rights has become the basis for market demand through marketization.  The spatial resistance of urbanization indicates the future sustainable consumption demand, and the relatively low price of housing still requires investment space.As of 2017, Vietnam’s urbanization rate is only 35%, and the relatively desirable urbanization rate from 70% still has room for growth.We believe that the transformation of urbanization and the increase in rural population will naturally generate more residential demand in the process of transferring from rural to urban areas. This structural consumption demand will continue to promote the development of Vietnam.At the same time, judging from the current housing prices, taking Ho Chi Minh City as an example, the prices of luxury homes have continued to rise significantly, while the relatively high-end and high-end homes have not changed significantly. Relatively speaking, housing prices can meet asset allocation.And investment needs.We believe that Vietnamese real estate is still in a difficult development space and prices still have investment opportunities.  Land ownership is traditional, but the right to use can be transferred, and the relative “privatization” of land use rights promotes market development.Vietnam’s land law has been endeavored to be revised many times before and after. Vietnam introduced the first Land Law in 1987, the second Land Law in 1993, amendments and additions in 2001, and the reconstruction of the third Land Law in 2003.The fourth Land Law was announced on November 29, 2013.According to the current land law, land ownership in Vietnam belongs to the state, and collectives and individuals can use previous land ownership rights.The state manages the land uniformly. The land use period is generally divided into two cases: long-term stable use and limited use. Long-term stable use can be passed to a “permanent use right.” The period of limited land use is also divided into 5 years. 20Years, 50 years, 70 years, and 90 years, generally renewable.Individuals and collectives who have the right to use the land can obtain the labor results and investment income on the land, and can also perform land transfer, transfer, lease, re-lease, inheritance, gift, mortgage, guarantee, investment and so on.reward.The relative “privatization” of land use rights has provided supply-side support for Vietnam’s real estate market.For foreign enterprises, Vietnam ‘s “Land Law” also provides supporting policies and regulations. According to the 2013 “Land Law”, foreign investors cannot purchase land in Vietnam, but can lease land and obtain land use rights. The use period is generally 50 years.In special cases, you can apply for an extension, but the maximum is not more than 70 years.  Vietnam’s housing market continues to grow rapidly, and foreign influx into Vietnam’s high-end real estate market In recent years, overseas investors have sought to boost the development of the Vietnamese real estate market, mainly optimistic about Vietnam’s high-end real estate, of which Chinese investors are the main force.On July 1, 2015, Vietnam ‘s new Housing Law came into effect, removing many restrictions on foreigners’ purchase of houses and encouraging foreigners to purchase houses in Vietnam. Stimulated by this, supply and demand in the Vietnamese real estate market have increased significantly since 2015.At the same time, the supply and marketing of new homes in the real estate market in Ho Chi Minh City can be trimmed. Since 2015, the proportion of luxury and high-end housing has increased significantly, reflecting that overseas investors are mainly optimistic about high-end real estate in Vietnam.  Compared with other global economies, Vietnam ‘s further development momentum has attracted too many overseas investors and is highly sought after by overseas funds, while the real estate market is an important choice for investors to allocate assets.Among CBRE (the world’s largest commercial real estate and service company: CBRE) in 2016-2018, the proportion of customers who bought a house for self-occupancy has decreased year by year. In 2018, the proportion of customers who bought a house for investment has reached as high as80%.Of the customers who allocated residential assets through CBRE in 2018, overseas investors accounted for 77%, of which Chinese national investors accounted for the largest share, up to 47%.  In 2018, Ho Chi Minh City’s real estate market has experienced significant differentiation in the rise of residential prices in different grades, and luxury house prices have risen far ahead of other grades.According to data provided by CBRE, the average price of luxury homes in Ho Chi Minh City rose to US $ 5,518 / sqm (about 37,300 yuan / sqm) in 2018, a 17% increase.Prices, the price increase of mid-end residential (mid-end) accounted for only 1%, and the price of high-end residential (high-end) almost unchanged.  The strong demand from overseas investors for ample supply of luxury homes has pushed up the rise.As far as the supply side is concerned, whether in the near future or historically, Ho Chi Minh City’s housing supply is relatively high in terms of the proportion of luxury housing, and it is mutually transmitted, with the highest proportion of high-end housing.The supply of new housing in Ho Chi Minh City in 2018 is mainly concentrated in high-end housing, of which high-end housing accounts for 52%; from 2007 to 2018, 260,247 new housing units were newly added in Ho Chi Minh City, mainly for high-end housing, luxury housing only2%.The supply volume of mid-to-high-end housing is relatively speaking and interferes with each other, and luxury housing provides sufficient substitutes. In this case, the strong demand for high-end housing by overseas investors has pushed up the price of luxury housing all the way, causing differentGrades of residential expansion are severely differentiated.  VI. Vietnam ‘s inflation target and base interest rate are relatively high. Vietnam ‘s incremental value has stabilized its currency value and changed to a monetary policy target. The Central Bank of Vietnam is the National Bank of Vietnam. The National Bank of Vietnam was established on May 6, 1951, and in October 1961.26th changed its name to the current name.Jurisprudentially, the Vietnam Central Bank Law of 2010 stipulates that the National Bank of Vietnam is the country ‘s national monetary policy authority. It mainly determines the monetary policy tools and implements corresponding measures to stabilize the local currency and maintain reasonable inflation.Monetary policy framework at the current stage of Vietnam’s transition is based on the 2015 operation plan: actively and flexibly using monetary policy tools to transform (passively respond to) inflation, rather than transforming into inflation (actively respond) to stabilize macroeconomics and achieve economic growthGrow and ensure that the credit system is liquid.At the same time, in accordance with macroeconomic developments and changes in inflation, to ensure the stability of the value of Vietnamese currency and overcome the impact of dollarization on interest rates and exchange rates.In terms of credit management, credit quality control is implemented, focusing on solving the financing difficulties of enterprises in the production and business development process, and continuing to implement plans that link bank credit and credit restructuring with economic policies, focusing on providing in the direction of government guidelinesfinancial support.  In 2018 and 2019, Vietnam ‘s inflation target is 4% growth in CPI growth. Exogenous liquidity easing and imported growth are the main reasons for the obvious fluctuations in Vietnam ‘s inflation.Vietnam is a more typical small export-oriented economy.In the late 1980s, after the gradual stabilization of its economy and politics, Vietnam determined the path of reform and opening up, gradually began to establish a market economic mechanism, and gradually integrated the global economic system. On November 7, 2006, Vietnam became the 150th World Trade Organization (WTO) 150thAdvantages.After Vietnam ‘s entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO), foreign exchange and foreign trade activity has continued to increase. The growth of foreign exchange and foreign trade has brought rapid expansion of foreign direct investment and exogenous liquidity to Vietnam. The increase in liquidity has led toAsset prices have begun to rise, to a certain extent driving the expected overall rise; gradually, due to the characteristics of Vietnam ‘s small export-oriented economy, objective natural endowment and the need for economic growth, Vietnam has relied heavily on imported energy products, industrial products and other energy products.Fluctuations in the price of industrial products also affect the domestic price level in Vietnam through international trade. Input fluctuations caused by changes in oil prices are an important force influencing changes in Vietnam’s CPI.At the same time, Vietnam ‘s increasing participation in international trade has been transformed, and global trade activity has become more consistent with Vietnam ‘s economic performance. Global trade protectionism and weak global demand have led to a decline in global trade activity, which will also lead to Vietnam ‘s economy.Under pressure.  At present, the main goal of Vietnam’s monetary policy is to control local currency stability and gradual inflation.The expected inflation target for Vietnam in 2018 is 4%. In October 2018, the Vietnamese government proposed an inflation target for 2019, which is to maintain the average growth rate of the consumer price index (CPI growth rate) at 4%, which is in line with 2018.Consistent.At present, Vietnam’s inflation is basically stable and controllable. The growth rate of CPI growth in 2018 has steadily rebounded. The latest data in November 2018 showed that Vietnam’s CPI growth increased by 3%.59%, an increase of 3.24%, already exceeding the annual target of nearly 4%.Judging from the historical data of the sub-items of the CPI, the price changes of the Chinese medicine and health care and transportation sub-items of Vietnam’s CPI. From the data of 2017, the prices of education, transportation, medicine and health care, and real estate are at a high level, which must be narrowCPI rebounded.From January to February 2019, the CPI increases by 2 every year.6%, mainly due to the Spring Festival.In February 2019, the CPI increased by 2 every year.64%, an increase of 0 from the previous month.8%, core CPI increased by 1 year-on-year.82%, an increase of 0 from the previous month.48%, CPI growth is mainly due to increased consumer demand during the Lunar New Year.Among them, the food and catering service industry saw the largest increase, at 1.73%; housing and building materials increased by 0%.69%, mainly due to rising natural gas prices; cultural and entertainment and tourism increased by 0%.66%; although the price of public transport services rose 4.4%, but due to the steady rise in oil prices during the Spring Festival, the CPI index for transportation increased only slightly.16%.  Animal products and industrial products fluctuate through PPI.Compared with CPI, Vietnam ‘s PPI changes with height. Vietnam ‘s PPI is mainly divided into two categories: agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and industrial products. Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery PPI is composed of agriculture, forestry and fishery. The main changes in agriculture come from changes in livestock products.The similarity between the increase in the price of agricultural products and the contribution of CPI; industrial products are divided into mining, processed products and hydropower supply, and the movement of mining and processed products is relatively biased, which is close to Vietnam’s own three-sector industrial structure and trade structure.We believe that through industrialization, urbanization and modernization, changes in the prices of finished products and industrial products will gradually decline, and the trend will be relatively stable.  The refinancing interest rate and discount rate are the benchmark interest rates for Vietnam ‘s transition. The medium reserve level is used as a price-based monetary policy tool. Interest rate tools are an important alternative to Vietnam ‘s transition. Among them, Vietnam mainly uses benchmark interest rates to influence other interest rates.The central bank officially disclosed that the benchmark interest rate of the Bank of Vietnam is the refinancing rate and discount rate. At present, the benchmark benchmark rate of Vietnam refers to the document (1424 / QD-NHNN) issued on July 10, 2017 and the refinancing rate is determined to be 6.25% discounted budget 4.25%.  In historical data, the two rounds of severe interest rate increases and reductions in the growth rate of Vietnam in 2008 and 2011 are different for different reasons. The former is to suppress duplication and economic recession, and the main reason is to suppress the impact of imported substitution.After Vietnam joined the WTO in 2006, the enthusiasm of foreign capital and foreign direct investment to enter Vietnam has rapidly increased. The positive role of foreign and fixed asset investment has driven Vietnam’s rapid economic growth. PPI and CPI have also been rapidly driven by the strong demand side.There is a certain “excess” of economic performance and rising prices, both of which are not conducive to the steady and sustained growth of Vietnam’s economy. Vietnam ‘s transition began to raise interest rates significantly in early 2008. However, after only two interest rate hikes, the financial crisis caused by the US subprime mortgage crisis broke out andQuickly spread to the world, Vietnam adopted a positive counter-cyclical transformation through continuous interest rate cuts, which led to a rapid economic downturn. From October 2008 to February 2009, Vietnam cut interest rates seven times in a row.Before and after 2011, Vietnam ‘s economy has gradually stabilized and slowly rebounded. The rapid rise in oil prices has caused import fluctuations in Vietnam. The growth rate of CPI has soared. In 2011, the CPI growth rate reached 8.6%, in order to cope with the high inflation in Vietnam ‘s transition to continuous interest rate hikes to curb price increases, a high offset must have impacted the momentum of Vietnam ‘s economic recovery. The decline in economic growth and the decline in oil price growth have gradually decreased. Vietnam ‘s growth is gradually reducing risks.In the case of slow release, the benchmark interest rate was gradually reduced in early 2012.  Exchange Rate and Foreign Exchange Reserves: Maintaining currency stability is an important and similar goal of Vietnam ‘s monetary policy. Vietnam ‘s current exchange rate system is a managed floating exchange rate system.Vietnam ‘s exchange rate system is divided into two phases. Under the collective economic system before Vietnam ‘s reform and opening up, Vietnam ‘s export distribution was reduced. The fixed exchange rate system was adopted. The official exchange rate was gradually replaced and changed to the gradual expansion of Vietnam ‘s outward-oriented economy. The scale of exportsWith the increase, the fixed exchange rate system gradually failed to meet the requirements of the foreign exchange market, and the exchange rate difference between the official exchange rate and the black market exchange rate appeared.After the reform and opening up of Vietnam in 1986, the financial system was reformed in 1989. The fixed exchange rate system was adjusted to a floating pegging exchange rate system, which is also a managed floating exchange rate system. The initial allowable floating range was plus or minus 1%. 2009In March of each year, the floating range was expanded to plus or minus 5%. In February 2011, the gradual and stable change in the transition exchange rate market was plus or minus 1%, and it was adjusted to plus or minus 3% at the end of 2015.  Vietnam’s foreign exchange market includes inter-bank market transactions and customer-facing transactions, and continuous over-the-counter transactions. Banks need to report daily foreign exchange transactions to Vietnam. Transactions traded through the Reuters trading system can be reported to Vietnam through the system one by one.Participants in the Vietnamese foreign exchange market include designated foreign exchange banks, foreign exchange supervision, corporate and individual customers, etc. It should be noted that the designated foreign exchange banks here refer to banks that have obtained approval from Vietnam Foreign Exchange to start foreign exchange business.The National Bank of Vietnam also participates in the foreign exchange market when it transitions to Vietnam, but does not promise to meet the full transaction needs of the bank. In fact, it can only meet part of the transaction needs of the bank. Therefore, in extreme cases, banks may appear in the Vietnamese foreign exchange market.The fact that there is no quote.  Vietnam ‘s exchange rate is generally depreciating.The relative volatility of the Vietnamese dong in 2011 was relatively large, and the exchange rate with the US dollar generally showed a decreasing trend. The main reason was the continuous increase in foreign debt and the multi-year trade deficit. The foreign exchange demand was relatively large.Absolutely, through the gradual balance of Vietnam’s import and export trade, the continuous increase of foreign direct investment, the pressure on the balance of payments gradually balances, and the pressure decreases. The depreciation trend of the Vietnamese dong has been reduced, and the depreciation rate has also decreased accordingly.  Maintaining currency stability is the highest important goal in Vietnam. The continuous improvement of the international balance of payments has driven up the fluctuation of foreign exchange reserves.Maintaining currency stability is an important goal for Vietnam’s transition. Due to the weak secondary and tertiary industries in the economic structure and changes in primary commodities in the value-added substitute product structure in the trade structure, Vietnam has faced challenges in the balance of payments pressure during the initial period after the reform and opening up.Vietnam ‘s exchange rate has also shown an increase in impairment.With the rapid economic growth brought about by the reform and opening up, demographic dividend, factor-driven factors and other factors, the international balance of payments has gradually reached equilibrium, the pressure of exchange rate depreciation has fallen, and foreign exchange reserves have begun to show a volatile upward trend. The increase in foreign exchange reserves is conducive to Vietnam’s growth rather thanThe exchange rate changes to maintain a stable currency.  7. The banking system is the foundation of Vietnam ‘s capital market, and direct financing is yet to be developed. Vietnam ‘s credit expansion is expanding rapidly. The credit market is developing rapidly in order to promote domestic and foreign investment. Vietnam has gradually formed since the implementation of the reform and opening-up policy in the late 1980s.And developed its banking financial management system.In 1990, Vietnam reorganized the banking system, separating commercial banks and national banks (the more extended), while paving the way for the private sector to enter the banking industry.In recent years, Vietnam’s banking industry has developed rapidly, continued to open to the outside world, and actively absorbed foreign capital.  The Central Bank of Vietnam is the National Bank of Vietnam.As of October 2017, domestic commercial banks in Vietnam include 5 state-controlled banks (Foreign Trade Bank, Agricultural and Rural Development Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Investment and Development Bank, Jiulongjiang Housing Development Bank), 34 urban stock commercial banks, 18Rural joint-stock commercial bank, 12 financial leasing companies.Foreign banks in Vietnam include 50 foreign bank branches, 4 joint venture banks, 5 foreign wholly-owned subsidiaries, and 49 foreign bank representative offices.Among them, the state-controlled banks are mainly composed of four major banks-Vietnam Investment Development Bank (BIDV), Vietnam Foreign Trade Shares Commercial Bank (VIETCOMBANK), Vietnam Industrial and Commercial Bank (VIETINBANK), and Vietnam Agricultural and Rural Development Bank (AGRIBANK).These four major banks occupy about 50% of the country’s credit scale, and the degree of centralized monopoly is relatively high.While other banks are small in scale, their business is usually regional.  Vietnam’s banking debt has maintained a rapid pace of credit expansion, and the deposit and loan business has developed strongly, maintaining double-digit growth.According to data from the National Bank of Vietnam, the compound annual average rate of deposits and loans from 2011 to 2016 reached 16 respectively.2% and 14.2%.The strong growth of credit in the first half of 2017 was the dual result of the government’s promotion and co-stimulation of consumer demand.In 2017, the annual credit growth was 16.96%. In 2018, credit growth slowed slightly, but still remained at 13.3% growth rate.  The credit structure has gradually changed, from industrial and construction to consumer.In 2012, industry, construction, and trade accounted for 29%, 9%, and 20% of total loans, respectively.After 2012, the proportion of these three has declined significantly.In the 2012-2016 average industry distribution data, the proportion of these three has dropped to 12%, 9% and 17% respectively.Especially in the rapidly growing credit scale in the first half of 2017, consumers’ purchasing power continued to increase, generating a driving force for penetration, and the proportion of the retail industry in the credit scale continued to expand.From the perspective of the relationship between credit and economic growth, the ratio of credit to GDP is 134%, and the role of monetary stimulus in GDP has been reflected to some extent.  Vietnam’s bond market is dominated by government bonds. 2018 data show that the market value of the Vietnamese bond market at the end of the year accounted for 24% of GDP, which has become an important government financing channel.From the perspective of bond issuers, the Vietnam bond market is mainly composed of government bonds, government-guaranteed bonds, portfolio bonds, and corporate bonds. From the point of view of bond denomination, Vietnamese bonds can be divided into local currency denominated bonds and foreign currency denominated bonds.  Government bonds intervene in the Vietnamese bond market. Government-guaranteed bonds and portfolio bonds are collectively referred to as government bonds. Government bond issuance and circulation account for 90% of the total value of the Vietnamese bond market (2017).According to Wind and Bloomberg data, as of 2018, Vietnamese government bonds were issued only through underwriting, and bid prices were formed when they were listed and traded at the Hanoi Stock Exchange.In 2017, the total value of the Vietnamese government bond market accounted for only 14% of Vietnam’s GDP.Among them, the government-guaranteed bonds are issued by the Vietnam Development Bank, and the Vietnam Social Policy Bank and other conventional agency underwriting agencies allocate investment project funds according to the instructions of the Prime Minister of Vietnam.The principal and interest paid on the bonds are paid by the government to investors.In addition, large state-owned commercial banks are the main holders of government bonds, and the bonds they hold will not be transferred to the secondary market.  Vietnamese corporate bonds started late and lacked transparency. Merged in Decree No. 1994 issued by the Vietnamese government.In the 120/1994 / ND-CP resolution, the relevant provisions on the issuance of bonds by state-owned enterprises, Vietnamese companies rarely issued corporate bonds before 2006.Since 2006, after the implementation of the Vietnam Company Law and the Vietnam Bond Law, corporate bond issuance has become increasingly active. One of the fundamental reasons is that the scale of corporate bond issuance is no longer gradually becoming an enterprise and a state-owned commercial bank.Corporate bond issuers have expanded to private companies and foreign companies.At the same time, affected by the policy of increasing the minimum asset size of banking financial institutions, commercial banks have continuously expanded the scale of bond issuance, which has led to the development of the bond market.  Although the Vietnamese corporate bond market has developed rapidly, the market size is still very small, and there are still many challenges to achieve stable development.First, according to current regulations, the company ‘s bonds were issued in a non-public private placement. According to data from the Vietnam Counsellor’s Office of the Ministry of Commerce at the end of 2011, only 11 company bonds were registered and traded at the securities exchange center, which was absent according to relevant systems or mechanisms.It is difficult to guarantee the disclosure and transparency of bond transaction information.As a result, it is difficult for investors to obtain information on the size, maturity, interest rates and special events of each bond in the corporate bond market.Essentially, there are no credit rating agencies in Vietnam, so only Vietnamese corporate bonds without credit ratings lack liquidity in the secondary market.Like government bonds, investors generally hold corporate bonds until their maturity date.Third, the issuance of corporate bonds is greatly affected by the macroeconomic and monetary policies. The uncertainty of Vietnam’s economic development has led to the development of the corporate bond market to a certain extent.  The government issued a new law to promote the development of the corporate bond market.In December 2018, the government announced Decree No. 163/2018 / ND-CP, regulating the issuance of corporate bonds, replacing the Decree No. 90/2011 / ND-CP of December 14, 2011, and issuing bonds for enterprises.Raise funds to establish a new legal framework.The new decree came into effect on February 1, 2019, gradually creating favorable conditions for enterprises, raising funds by issuing bonds, developing the corporate bond market in the direction of publicity, transparency, and protecting the interests of private investors, further expanding the size of the corporate bond market, and avoiding banksCredit financing burden.  Vietnam’s stock market continues to grow and develop. As of December 28, 2018, the total market value of Vietnam’s stock market reached VND 390 trillion (approximately USD 167.7 billion), and it will grow by 12 at the end of 2017.7%, equivalent to 79% of 2017 GDP and 72% of 2018 GDP.  The development of the Vietnamese stock market has mainly gone through three stages. The development of the Vietnamese stock market has been so large that it can be divided into the following three stages: The first stage (1990?1999) Before the establishment of the Vietnam Stock Exchange.In 1990, Vietnam announced the Corporate and Private Enterprise Law. In the same year, Vietnamese state-owned enterprises began to implement shareholding reforms.The emergence of joint-stock enterprises marked the initial establishment of the Vietnamese stock market.  The second stage (2000?(2007), the establishment of the Vietnam Stock Exchange, and the Vietnamese stock market has developed from a slow start to a leaping development.In 2000, the Ho Chi Minh City Securities Exchange Center in Vietnam was officially opened. The listing and trading of 7 companies marked the entry into a substantive phase of Vietnam’s stock market. Vietnam became the seventh of the 10 ASEAN countries to establish a securities market.In order to further promote the reform of the state-owned enterprises’ shareholding system in Vietnam, in 2005, the Hanoi Securities Exchange Center officially opened as the second stock market in Vietnam, focusing on providing a more convenient financing platform for small and medium-sized enterprises.The growth rate of the Vietnamese stock market in the first five years was not fast, far exceeding the growth rate of Vietnam’s economy.However, according to data from the Ministry of Commerce of the developing countries and the Vietnam Stock Exchange, by 2006, the Vietnamese stock market ushered in the largest company listing peak since the market opened. In that year, a total of 74 companies were listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange, more than the previous 5 years.Double the total number of listed companies.At the end of 2006 alone, the Vietnam Index climbed to the highest point since the market opened-809.86 points, and at the end of 2005, the index was only 307.5 o’clock.Vietnam joined the WTO in 2007. Stimulated by favorable factors, Vietnam’s securities market has shown a leap-forward development momentum.In March 2007, the Vietnam Index was close to a historical high of 1180 points.From October 2003 to March 2007, the Vietnamese stock market rose by 780%.  In the third stage (2008 to present), during the international financial crisis and post-crisis period, Vietnam’s stock market developed slowly and closed down.The international financial crisis broke out in 2008, and the withdrawal of foreign investment capital severely hit the rapidly developing Vietnamese stock market.In February 2009, the Vietnam Index slipped to around 250.According to Vietnam Securities Securities data, as of the end of September 2012, the price of 431 stocks out of the 704 stocks of the Vietnam Stock Exchange dropped below the original price, and the total market value of stocks in the securities market decreased to US $ 34.4 billion.Many listed companies have withdrawn from the securities market, and some companies applying for listing have also withdrawn. Large state-owned enterprises in Vietnam have gradually phased out the process of shareholding reform, which has led to a downturn in the development of the Vietnamese stock market.  In 2018, the stock market witnessed a bleak year since the 2008 global financial crisis.While experiencing five consecutive years of economic growth, the market declined for the first time.It achieved a record high growth of 48% in 2017.The VN index reached an all-time high of 1211 on April 10, but then suffered a sharp 27% decline, reaching the bottom of 888 on October 30. Vietnam ‘s GDP growth rate was relatively fast and declined within a decadeAttributable to objective reasons, such as increased trade tensions between the United States and China and long-term global interest rate hikes.Although Vietnam’s stock market has started to decrease sharply since early April 2018, foreign countries continue to continue their securities markets.According to the statistics of the General Administration of Statistics, foreign direct investment in Vietnam in the first 11 months of 2018 was US $ 16.5 billion, and indirect capital was approximately US $ 7.6 billion.  The development of direct financing and enrichment of investment targets are important contents for the future development of the Vietnamese capital market. On the indirect financing system with the core of the banking system, promoting the development of the direct financing system and improving the types of optional investment targets are important for the future development of the Vietnamese capital market.content.Vietnam’s bond market will mainly develop corporate bonds and government bonds in the future.The existing bond market is basically dominated by government bonds, and large state-owned commercial banks are the main holders of government bonds. The incomplete symmetry of information in the direct financing system of Vietnam has restricted the liquidity of the Vietnamese bond market, and the direct financing system is in urgent need of development.Therefore, Vietnam hopes to increase the development speed of corporate debt in the future, expand support for the expansion of the direct financing system, strengthen financing capabilities, and strengthen the status of service entities.At the same time, from the perspective of improving and promoting the growth of the financial market, Vietnam hopes to continue to improve and diversify the types of investment targets available. Currently, there are 2 million accounts in Vietnam, and only over 60,000 accounts for investment derivatives, accounting for only 3%, At the same time, the high dividend rate of existing derivatives has led to a reduction in trading volume in the market, and most investors choose to hold derivatives for a long time; Vietnam plans to develop more futures products by 2020, enrich asset allocation types, and provide investors withBy providing more types of configurable assets, some risks can be hedged through appropriate derivative instruments to achieve relatively stable investment returns.  Eighth, the Vietnamese market has a certain investment value. Vietnam’s manufacturing industry has continuous growth space and investment value. Vietnam’s manufacturing industry has breakthrough growth space and investment value.We believe that Vietnam ‘s manufacturing industry has breakthrough growth space in the future and has continuous investment value.First of all, Vietnam ‘s factor cost underestimates the company ‘s ability to achieve a high return on investment. Due to pressure, whether the cost of factors such as land is absolutely absolute or in proportion to other Southeast Asian countries, it is at the same level, especially the labor cost is only about the sufficient domestic cost.This comparative advantage will provide positive support for Vietnam to undertake industrial transfer and manufacturing development; secondly, the Vietnamese government ‘s policy incentives and preferential treatment for manufacturing enterprises have taken root in Vietnam, and at the same time increase their advantages and tax subsidies to enhance their competitiveness.Third, being in the core area of Southeast Asia, with a coastline of more than 3,200 tons and numerous ports and terminals, Vietnam has excellent foreign trade conditions and provides support for export-oriented manufacturing in terms of transportation and logistics.Fourth, exchange rate stability is an important goal of Vietnam ‘s transitional monetary policy. Under the gradual transformation of Vietnam, the Vietnamese dong has maintained a gradual downward trend, replacing stable exchanges to avoid the impact of thinner profit margins on the manufacturing industry.Continued depreciation is conducive to maintaining the relative export price advantage of manufactured products.Fifth, due to the development experience of the four small dragons in East Asia and the rapid development of the region’s economy driven by the external manufacturing industry in China’s coastal areas, the development path of Vietnam’s manufacturing industry can be used as a reference to reduce the trial and error cost and improve the manufacturing recoverydevelopment of.Taken together, we believe that Vietnam’s manufacturing industry has a better prospect, has a relatively long room for growth, and can replace the value of investment.  The real estate market has risen, but there are still certain investment opportunities in urbanization. The population growth trend and the age structure of the population have driven the Vietnamese real estate market, which has become a lateral support for the long-term demand and demand for real estate in Vietnam.The total population of Vietnam in 2017 was approximately 93.7 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.06%. Since 2000, Vietnam ‘s average population growth rate has been 1.12%.The steady population growth determines the overall demand of Vietnam’s real estate market for a long period in the future.Of Vietnam’s total population of 9,370, the labor force between the ages of 25 and 44 accounts for 32 of the country’s total population.8%, more than 30 million people in this age group buy a house, the average working age is only 30.At the age of five, a young labor force of contradictory size means the support of rigid demand and improved demand, which will also become the medium-to-long-term demand-side logic of the Vietnamese real estate occupation.As most young people grow older and their consumption levels continue to escalate, the demand for housing will continue to expand, mainly reflected in expanding the size of housing units or increasing housing investment.In the future, the increase in the illegal disposable income of Vietnamese residents will promote the improvement of purchasing power, which will also help release the demand for house purchases.In addition, the level of urbanization in Vietnam is still at a decreasing level, only 35% in 2017. The peasant citizenization in the process of urbanization also reset the structurally positive urban real estate.We believe that the demographic characteristics and urbanization of Vietnam have become the medium and long-term maintenance of Vietnamese real estate.  From an investment perspective, real estate in key cities still has room for appreciation.Taking Ho Chi Minh City as an example, the house price-to-income ratio in 2017 was 4.0, ranking the capital of other important Southeast Asian countries is still at a low level, the highest point Manila’s house price income ratio is 7.5. Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines averaged 6.0, there is still room for improvement in the future.At the same time, according to 2017 data, Vietnam ‘s housing loan as a percentage of GDP is also the lowest among the five countries, compared with the highest point of 50 in Singapore.6%, Vietnam is only 1.9%, the lowest percentage of loans reflects that there is still a certain amount of room for house purchase demand by Vietnamese residents, and potential purchase demand will also support prices.  The investment return is relatively optimistic, and the investment attributes are gradually showing.After Vietnam joined the WTO in 2006, the average GDP growth rate was about 6.8%. Under the condition that Vietnamese residents are optimistic about the country’s economic growth, home value preservation is a suitable way of consumption and investment for domestic residents.At the same time, the rapid entry of foreign countries has also driven the growth of the real estate market.With the support of fundamentals, Vietnamese real estate is favored and actively deployed by foreign overseas investors. The properties of real estate investment in cities such as Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City are gradually changing, and certain development and investment space is required.  In addition, thanks to property rights policies, Vietnam has attracted many Asian high net worth investors.The number of high net worth individuals with assets in Vietnam reaching one million US dollars has grown from 7,000 in 13 years to 9,000 in 17 years.The middle class in Ho Chi Minh City is expected to increase from 1 million in 2015 to 5 million in 2030; Hanoi’s middle class classification will increase from 5 million in 2015 to 8 million in 2030.And the proportion of high-net-worth individuals in other parts of Asia, Vietnam’s proportion is still declining, investors in other regions will be a good complement to the Vietnamese market.  In summary, thanks to the medium- and long-term support from the demand side, even if the prices of some property markets have risen a lot in the short-term, we believe that whether it is an investor or a developer, the Vietnamese real estate market has certain allocation and investment opportunities.  Stocks have weak liquidity, but have a certain investment value.Stocks are less liquid, but still have a certain investment value under the support of fundamentals.Vietnam ‘s economic fundamentals are reduced and replaced. Vietnam ‘s GDP has stabilized at the level of 6% to 7%, and has gradually slowly recovered to the desired level. It still performs well in the process of global risk rebalancing. Capital inflows continue to be voted on with “feet”The side confirms the support of the fundamentals of Vietnam ‘s economy. We believe that Vietnam, as a one-time, has a weak economic background and the stock market is difficult to compare with mature developed economies. At present, the stock market is weak in liquidity.T + 2 transactions.However, considering the fundamental long-term support, the Vietnamese stock market has certain investment value.Considering the gradual weakness of the US dollar in the future, the Vietnamese stock market as a subject of capital return emerging market countries also has a certain investment value.  Beware of the gradual advancement of continuous interest rate shocks to the market, and the overall overall risk is small.Due to the factor endowment and economic structure of the country, the impact of importation on Vietnam ‘s CPI has continued to break through. From the fourth quarter of 2010, oil prices have gradually started to rise rapidly. The importation has gradually caused Vietnam ‘s domestic CPI to even increase correspondingly, gradually impacting the economy.Fundamental boots have led to worsening market expectations, increased capital expenditure pressure, and a significant depreciation of the exchange rate side due to capital gains. On the stock market, the Hanoi and Vietnam indexes have also fallen significantly, and the real estate market has also been impacted.In response to financial market fluctuations and deteriorating fundamentals, Vietnam gradually expanded and began to continuously raise interest rates to cope with a gradual upward trend. In February 2011, it shifted the floating range from plus or minus 5% to plus or minus 1% and gradually stabilized the currency value.We believe that the impact of imported conflicts is one of the potential risks for the Vietnamese economy. The transformation of the financial market between 2010 and 2012 has become valuable experience in the course of Vietnam’s economic development, which helps prevent and control risks.  Weak external risks, beware of the overheating economy. We issued the “Ratio Logic and Better Logic-On the Root Causes of Risk Linkage in China’s Stock Exchange Market” in December 2016, and “Turkey is Emerging” issued in August 2018.Is the fuse of the market crisis?-“U.S. Dollar Cycle and Game of Big Powers (IV)” report states that there is a logic of good and bad logic between China and the United States. There is a certain path dependence on the development path of emerging market countries. This path dependence is subject to external shocks.Will become a “trap” in the growth process of emerging market countries.We believe that Vietnam and China have certain similarities in certain economic policies and systems, and have a typical growth path owned by emerging market countries that relies on foreign investment and an export-oriented economy. It will be under pressure in 2018 and will follow in 2019.With the weakening of the US economy, monetary policy and the US dollar, Vietnam ‘s external pressures will improve, and excess liquidity risks, external debt risks, high government leverage and other potential risks have weakened to varying degrees. We believe that the Vietnamese economy will continue in 2019Maintain a high growth rate.  The weakening of external risks has created space for Vietnam’s rapid development.For Vietnam, external risks will gradually converge in 2019.Fundamentals of the U.S. economy have gradually peaked, the Fed has postponed interest rate hikes and disclosed that it will suspend contraction later in 2019. The U.S. dollar will also transition into a weak cycle. Vietnam and the U.S. dollar will interact, and the United States will tend to ease the pressure on Vietnam.In addition, Brexit, Sino-U.S. Trade frictions, U.S., European and Japanese auto tariffs and other risk events affecting global demand and global trade are also expected to gradually ease in 2019. Overall, external risks are weakening as outward-lookingEconomic growth in Vietnam brings room for development.  Foreign investment injected or pushed up asset prices, and credit growth was supplementing and increasing.After Vietnam joined the WTO in 2007, it incorporated the new “Investment Law” and merged to “embrace” foreign capital. The inflow of foreign capital has driven Vietnam’s economic recovery, but this has translated into a financial crisis and a rapid expansion of the trade deficit, which has led to corresponding economic growth.Policy to hedge downward pressure, the rapid expansion of broad money, driven by liquidity and demand-side stimulus, Vietnam ‘s CPI growth rate increased around 2011.Since 2015, through foreign capital re-entering Vietnam again, the Vietnamese government has proactively adjusted the rate of expansion of domestic currency relative to GDP and the rate of credit expansion to avoid excessive liquidity leading to the rapid rise of Vietnam’s asset prices.The main reason is that asset revaluation and bull market caused by exogenous liquidity will lead to a general rise in asset prices. The bursting of asset bubbles during foreign exchange withdrawal will cause rapid tightening of liquidity, triggering a liquidity crisis is more likely to lead to a financial crisisappear.At present, Vietnam’s asset prices have risen to some extent, but overall it is still manageable to expand the broad currency tightening.  Foreign exchange reserves are relatively sufficient, and external debt risks are manageable.There is a certain economic growth path dependence in emerging markets. When the US dollar enters a weak cycle, capital enters emerging market countries to drive its rapid economic growth. When the dollar enters a strong cycle, capital hedges and the pursuit of higher yields in emerging markets is often caused by emerging markets.Certain market shocks.For Vietnam, due to the quantitative easing policies of developed economies in the developing countries, and due to mutual offsets, Vietnam ‘s external debt ratio has risen significantly. The shift in the balance of payments to a double surplus has driven the growth of foreign exchange reserves.The ratio to external debt has also risen accordingly, and risks have been mitigated.At the same time, the strong performance of economic growth has led to the improvement of the molecular end of the leverage ratio, and both the government leverage ratio and the external debt resistance ratio have decreased.Overall, we believe that the overall pressure on emerging markets in 2019 is relatively limited. At the same time that Vietnam ‘s own debt risk is reduced, foreign exchange reserves have also produced a stable exchange rate shock, and at the same time, it can maintain a reasonable level of leverageInside, there is also a looser space for policy adjustment.  Author: Li Chao Huatai Securities, financial headline: “Young and vitality after the war-torn – Vietnam Economic Research and Prospects”