Guizhou Moutai (600519) Third Quarterly Report Review: Multiple Measures and Simultaneous Approval, Rational Return to Scheduling Rhythm Slows Quarterly Results

Guizhou Moutai (600519) Third Quarterly Report Review: Multiple Measures and Simultaneous Approval, Rational Return to Scheduling Rhythm Slows Quarterly Results
In the third quarter of 2019, the growth of performance was slightly lower than expected, and the long-term expectations remain unchanged. We maintain the “strongly recommended” company’s third quarter report for 2019 and achieve a total operating income of 635.09 ppm / +15.53%; net profit attributable to mother 304.55 ppm / + 23.13%.In Q3 2019, revenue was 223.3.6 billion / + 13.28%; net profit attributable to mother is 105.0 ppm / + 17.11%.Accounts received in advance 112.55 ppm, a year-on-year increase of 1%, a month-on-month decrease of 8%; the first three quarters of revenue + advance receipts 747.64 ppm / + 13%, mainly due to the lag in intra-group shipments, reduced sales from overlapping dealers, and dragged down advance receipts, cash flow and revenue recognition.What do we expect the company 2019?Net profit attributable to mother will be 426 in 2021.05/504.32/593.82 ppm, an increase of 21 in ten years.0% / 18.4% / 17.7%, corresponding to an EPS of 33.92/40.15/47.27 yuan.Current highest correspondence 2019?The PE in 2020 is 28.4/24.0/20.4 times.Demand for high-end liquor is stable, and the performance will be highly deterministic in 2019, maintaining the “strong recommendation” level.  2019Q3 confirmed that shipments increased slightly, non-standard issuances may have increased, and the production of base wine has steadily increased. In 2019Q3, the company achieved revenue of 223.3.6 billion / + 13.28%, volume and price are reduced. Without considering the impact of advance receipts, we expect that the confirmed amount in the third quarter statement will be about 8,700 tons, which will contribute about 5% of revenue growth. The increase in non-standard issuance will increase the ton price and increase the price.About 8% of revenue growth.In terms of base wine production, according to data from the 2020 Maotai Production and Quality Conference in Guizhou, the output of base wine in Moutai in 2019 is about 4.In the 99’s, the series was about 2.36 It is expected that the output of Moutai will reach 4 in 2024.In 24 months, the compound sales growth from 2020 to 2024 is about 6%.  Various measures were taken to guide the rational return of the approval price. Since the company ‘s market pricing power was increased in the third quarter, Feitian Moutai’s approval price has rapidly risen to a high of 2,700 yuan, which suppresses real demand.Decrease in investment and increase supply (7,000 tons in 2018 and 7,400 tons in 2019); gradually and continuously promote the reform of channel operation structure: ① Multi-channel expansion of parity (terminal guidance price 1499) Moutai sales, such as providing 5 tons of Moutai to Costco supermarket Shanghai storeLiquor; e-commerce platform bidding (landed on Tmall supermarket, Suning Tesco, and one to be announced), with a quota of 400 tons; 600 tons of Moutai liquor will be launched on the supermarket platform, and delivery will be extended in the third quarter.②Increased the sales volume of 32 self-operated stores (vertical planning volume was nearly 1,500 tons), and reported sales of USD 3.1 billion, corresponding to nearly 1,000 tons.The company has taken various measures to guide the rational return of the approval price. At present, the mainstream approval price in the market is stable at 2200-2300 yuan, and the company’s market voice has been improved.  During the period, expenses were reduced and profitability was reported to increase gross profit margin by 91 per year.5%, same as 0.37pct, which is mainly due to the increase in non-standard shipments such as the year of the pig Zodiac Moutai.Selling expense ratio 4.1%, down by 1.06pct, is expected to be caused by the increase in self-operated investment, sorting out distribution channels, and reduction in cost placement; management expense ratio 6.6%, down by 0.11 points; net interest rate 53.2%, the same rise 2.33 points.The cash inflow of goods sold in Q3 2019 was 228 ppm / -0.7%, mainly due to the delayed delivery of intra-group transactions.Taxes and surcharges 12.5% (industry average), the recent reform of liquor consumption tax has become the focus of industry attention, and currently there are still defects after collection; Moutai liquor scarcity + financial investment attributes, strong bargaining power; if it moves backward,杭州夜网论坛 it will benefit the company’s market in the long runIncreased share.  Risk reminder: Liquor consumption tax rate significantly increases risks, the macroeconomic downturn poses high-end liquor demand risks, limited San Gong consumption exacerbates risks, food safety risks, etc.