Dongfeng Motor (600006) Coverage Report for the First Time: Focus on Light Truck Explosion Products to Improve the Company’s Profit Quality
Guide to this report: Benefiting from the focus on light commercial vehicle explosion models, overlapping Dongfeng Cummins’ performance remains stable, and the company’s performance is expected to rise steadily.
Investment Highlights: Target Price 5.
22 yuan, the first coverage given “overweight” rating.
Benefiting from focusing on light commercial vehicle explosion models, the performance of Dongfeng Cummins has remained stable (contribution to investment income in 20183.
95 ppm, accounting for 72% of the company’s net profit), and we predict that EPS for 2019-2021 will be zero.
26/0.
28/0.
27 yuan, with reference to the comparable company (commercial vehicle industry), considering the existence of the company and other state-owned car companies’ commercial vehicle departments to form an alliance, give a certain premium, give the company 18, 2020.
64 times PE with a target price of 5.
22 yuan.
The company launches a product focus plan, delves into light trucks and specializes in subdivided areas, and expects light truck business support performance to improve.
Benefiting from the streamlined product line in 2018, which focused on the replacement of explosive products, the company sold light trucks from January to July 2019.
40,000 vehicles, + 12% per year (increased to 9% in 2018), the growth rate has accelerated, of which Dongfeng Dolica contributed about 70% of sales.
The company has successively launched key models such as Dongfeng Tuyi single-row gasoline and Dongfeng Capote K6-L. It is connected to the 深圳spa会所 release of mid-to-high-end T17 light trucks in 2020, and policies such as pickup trucks entering the city have brought about a relatively relaxed industry environment. It is expected thatThe company’s light truck business (accounting for 50% of the company’s revenue) continued to grow.
The long-term growth driven by the new energy business and the release of sales volume are expected to increase the maximum production capacity, which will significantly increase the gross profit margin and improve profitability.
In 2018, the company’s new energy vehicle sales were 3.
20,000 (previously +9.
4%), revenue / gross contribution was 31% / 13%, and the regenerated power utilization rate (53%) resulted in a renewed gross profit margin (4.
9%).
It is expected that the gradual release of sales in 2020-2021 will drive the gross 南宁桑拿 profit margin to improve to more than 8%.
Since 2018, the company’s key pure electric light truck boutique model D94 has formed three major platforms, ER30, E11K, and EV30, to deepen the product layout of pure electric riders and suppliers, and promote competition in the new energy business.
Catalyst: New products were officially launched, and the growth rate of light truck sales was further increased.
Risk warning: The light commercial vehicle market is weaker than expected, and product development progress is lower than expected.