Sanyou Chemical (600409): The bottom of the product boom history is expected to gradually bottom out and pick up
Event summary The company announcement estimates that the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company in 2019 will be 7.
1 ‰, an average of 55% over ten years, and a single Q4 profit of 1.
900 million, an increase of 38% from the previous month; non-net profit attributable to listed companies was 6.
4 ‰, the previous budget was 62%, non-net profit deducted in the fourth quarter of Q1 was 1.
2 trillion, 15% carbon dioxide.
Analysis and judgment: In Q4 2019, the viscose boom continued to be sluggish, and the non-recurring profit and loss contribution performance increased month-on-month.
The company’s main viscose product, Q4, is down compared to Q3. 北京夜网 According to wind data, the average price difference between “viscose-coniferous pulp and protopine” Q4 has dropped from 1,151 yuan / ton to 4,311 yuan / ton over Q3, which has been 5 years.Low, it is expected that the entire industry has been included in the expectations, and small capacity generally exceeds cash flow.
The soda ash spread Q4 and Q3 are basically the same, which is at the median level of the past five years.
Chlor-alkali Q4 benefited from the rise in PVC prices, and its prosperity improved compared with Q3, which was at the mid-point of the last five years.
The spread of organic silicon Q4 dropped slightly from Q3, which is at the mid-point of the last five years.
In the case of a slight increase in the prosperity of major products in Q4, the increase in the amount of government subsidies and the loss of non-current assets disposal and the reduction in Q4 single-quarter profits increased, and it is estimated that Q4 non-recurring gains and losses will be 70 million.
The peak of the viscose industry’s expansion has passed, and the boom will gradually rise in the next two years.
According to CCF data, the viscose staple fiber industry experienced rapid expansion from 2017 to 2018, and its production capacity increased from 370 in 2016 to 434 at the end of 2018. Only the leading companies will have a small capacity expansion in the next two years.
In 2019, the product price will be below the cost line of the entire industry, and the existing small capacity of the industry will withdraw.
The company’s three quarterly report revealed that it has a capacity of 78 sticky adhesives. As one of the lowest cost companies, it is expected to be replaced this year.
The industry will definitely bring down the operating rate for a long time. In 2020, the price of viscose is expected to return to the industry cost line, and the company’s related business is expected to turn a deficit.
Soda ash will benefit from high completion and high growth of photovoltaic glass in the next two years.
Soda ash is one of the main raw materials of glass, and glass accounts for 50-60% of its downstream demand. It mainly replaces the completed end in the real estate industry chain.
Since July 2019, the completion of real estate has become warmer. According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the completion area of houses nationwide is expected to increase by 20% in 四川耍耍网 December, and this rapid growth will continue until 2021.
In addition, photovoltaic glass, as an emerging demand, maintains a rapid growth of 25% -30% each year, which will also drive demand for soda ash.
On the supply side, the soda ash industry will increase production capacity in 2020. Considering the high demand for the industry, the price of soda ash is expected to usher in a breakthrough increase.
Investment suggestion The company’s current major products are at a low point of the economy, only PB is 1.
18 times, the margin of safety is significant.
We will forecast the company’s net profit attributable to the mother for 2019-2020 from 6.
8 million is adjusted to 7.
5 / 170,000 yuan, corresponding to EPS are 0.
82 yuan, the current corresponding PE is 16/11/7 times.
Maintain the “overweight” rating.
Risks suggest that demand recovery is not up to expectations.